{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "53d5fdb7-ad00-44ec-b289-c6c5284c6ea9",
    "symbol": "HGER",
    "name": "HARBOR COMMODITY ALL-WEATHER STRATEGY ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 93.263,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 68.626,
    "architecture_energy": 63.417,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.337,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.187,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.",
        "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 24.39,
        "rotation_up": 76.1,
        "upward_expansion": 83.28,
        "deceleration": 50.81,
        "rotation_down": 10.91,
        "downward_expansion": 12.28
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        32.245333,
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        31.049398
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 32.65,
    "trend_reference": 30.253667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.079208,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 22.950131,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.42265,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 5.213116,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.212853,
    "excess_performance": 0.087228,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.079208,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.071552,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.42265,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.062539,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.052131,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.076954,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.212853,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.119157,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 7605721,
      "relative_activity": 1.08438,
      "balance": 1.119157,
      "dry_up": 1.278152,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.033172,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.159951,
      "from_high_reference": -0.026535,
      "from_low_reference": 0.445814
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 30.253667,
      "fair_value_reference": 22.950131,
      "structural_low": 26.385,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.007734,
        "positive_rate": 0.583333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.583333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.01181,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.078898,
        "worst_return": -0.033966,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.04714,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.031251,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.114976,
        "worst_return": -0.034041,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.07835,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.108709,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.011494,
        "sufficient": false
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
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        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.040377,
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        "worst_return": 0.07835,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-02-02",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.029798,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.023245,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.054388,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2024-10-04",
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      {
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
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      },
      {
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      },
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 6631038.95,
        "trend": 29.519667,
        "fair_value": 22.69628,
        "relative_strength": 7.879423,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 38.927944,
        "energy": 19.970033,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.602667,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 32.5,
        "volume": 4116988,
        "typical_volume": 6669096.8,
        "trend": 29.762333,
        "fair_value": 22.780696,
        "relative_strength": 10.227657,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 39.570568,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.352,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 32.15,
        "volume": 10410700,
        "typical_volume": 6872879.85,
        "trend": 30.011,
        "fair_value": 22.863625,
        "relative_strength": 7.547573,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.628507,
        "energy": 46.411154,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.812,
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          31.197,
          30.87914
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 32.65,
        "volume": 7605721,
        "typical_volume": 7013892.25,
        "trend": 30.253667,
        "fair_value": 22.950131,
        "relative_strength": 5.213116,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.625995,
        "energy": 63.417319,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}