{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53d6e147-a811-4c16-892f-e39fec0819bb", "symbol": "AIQE", "name": "GLOBAL X AI UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.022, "architecture_energy": 31.767, "architecture_maturity": 71.232, "architecture_confidence": 86.646, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.68, "rotation_up": 23.84, "upward_expansion": 56.39, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 35.98, "downward_expansion": 20.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.679666, 24.145909, 24.007424, 23.012262 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.584999, "trend_reference": 21.7971, "distance_from_trend": 0.127902, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.498918, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.328997, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.920454, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.301207, "excess_performance": 0.130315, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.127902, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083991, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.328997, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008711, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029205, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083636, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.301207, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.01678, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8101, "relative_activity": 1.646461, "balance": 1.01678, "dry_up": 1.480159, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049733, "annualized_volatility": 0.286007, "from_high_reference": -0.059307, "from_low_reference": 0.454734 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.7971, "fair_value_reference": 18.498918, "structural_low": 17.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.158789, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023612, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058786, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-27", "close": 14.972, "volume": 74, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.075114, "energy": 61.681938, "activity_lines": [ 25.194667, 25.158546, 23.643286, 22.512071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.950001, "volume": 16975, "typical_volume": 5208.2, "trend": 21.4232, "fair_value": 18.338568, "relative_strength": -0.149975, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.711657, "energy": 39.861167, "activity_lines": [ 24.420667, 24.800818, 23.717657, 22.618265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.219999, "volume": 1548, "typical_volume": 4910.3, "trend": 21.545733, "fair_value": 18.389417, "relative_strength": 1.054153, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.768332, "energy": 29.774585, "activity_lines": [ 23.876, 24.502273, 23.79919, 22.734187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.924999, "volume": 2507, "typical_volume": 4701.5, "trend": 21.6541, "fair_value": 18.436175, "relative_strength": -1.002673, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.520059, "energy": 29.695981, "activity_lines": [ 23.426666, 24.158545, 23.833486, 22.823172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.584999, "volume": 8101, "typical_volume": 4920.25, "trend": 21.7971, "fair_value": 18.498918, "relative_strength": 2.920454, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.021894, "energy": 31.767256, "activity_lines": [ 23.679666, 24.145909, 24.007424, 23.012262 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }