{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53da43aa-cf4d-4ce8-bce6-9bdc1fc8e304", "symbol": "CRML", "name": "Carmel Corp Ltd.", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.675, "architecture_energy": 67.312, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.682, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.87, "rotation_up": 29.97, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.62, "rotation_down": 53.25, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.41, 15.518909, 433.458762, 760.884172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.43, "trend_reference": 1145.959333, "distance_from_trend": -0.986535, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1859.508623, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.991702, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -99.093322, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.990805, "excess_performance": -1.019705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.986535, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.353016, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.991702, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.734495, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.990933, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.568641, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.990805, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.165295, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105461, "relative_activity": 3.436135, "balance": 3.165295, "dry_up": 1.438391, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 9.504063, "annualized_volatility": 6.30717, "from_high_reference": -0.99328, "from_low_reference": 0.079021 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1145.959333, "fair_value_reference": 1859.508623, "structural_low": 14.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.012771, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.021506, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.18459, "worst_return": -0.990754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.062702, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.086301, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.351254, "worst_return": -0.990282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.205374, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.167124, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.308575, "worst_return": -0.990682, "sufficient": true }, 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"fair_value": 1911.558495, "relative_strength": -99.17084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.624191, "energy": 85.249663, "activity_lines": [ 15.47, 188.753636, 714.309762, 1002.508925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.64, "volume": 18406, "typical_volume": 25801.7, "trend": 1264.04, "fair_value": 1894.017726, "relative_strength": -99.15804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.203835, "energy": 68.252623, "activity_lines": [ 15.553333, 103.241636, 612.310905, 918.243634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.15, "volume": 23896, "typical_volume": 26631.2, "trend": 1205.611667, "fair_value": 1876.993046, "relative_strength": -99.135591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.100679, "energy": 67.912067, "activity_lines": [ 15.433333, 45.192545, 518.690905, 837.670086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.43, "volume": 105461, "typical_volume": 30691.75, "trend": 1145.959333, "fair_value": 1859.508623, "relative_strength": -99.093322, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.675461, "energy": 67.311775, "activity_lines": [ 15.41, 15.518909, 433.458762, 760.884172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }