{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53f2bbdb-5cef-4dcf-a781-d6b814385cd1", "symbol": "IQJP", "name": "IndexIQ Factors Sustainable Japan Equity UCITS ETF Cap", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.562, "architecture_energy": 69.032, "architecture_maturity": 48.754, "architecture_confidence": 69.217, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.62, "rotation_up": 78.31, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.79, "rotation_down": 11.35, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.639667, 47.128364, 46.000691, 45.498376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 47.775002, "trend_reference": 45.095167, "distance_from_trend": 0.059426, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.478482, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.210153, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.543841, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.044948, "excess_performance": -0.008364, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059426, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03451, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.210153, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078688, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025438, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005544, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044948, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.561644, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.056657, "balance": 6.561644, "dry_up": 3.42068, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015208, "annualized_volatility": 0.135899, "from_high_reference": -0.017582, "from_low_reference": 0.18799 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.095167, "fair_value_reference": 39.478482, "structural_low": 42.994999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.005827, "positive_rate": 0.633333, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.001919, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.052698, "worst_return": -0.055774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.026286, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.020311, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.097514, "worst_return": -0.039669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042483, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.054789, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.156788, "worst_return": 0.025205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 45.947666, 45.214909, 44.634214, 44.551172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.625, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 16.9, "trend": 44.433833, "fair_value": 39.134379, "relative_strength": 7.797942, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 98.031581, "energy": 99.282535, "activity_lines": [ 46.67, 45.740454, 44.933666, 44.769032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.07, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": 17.55, "trend": 44.595333, "fair_value": 39.219732, "relative_strength": 6.261404, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.692103, "energy": 91.096896, "activity_lines": [ 46.977333, 46.099272, 45.17119, 44.939107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.764999, "volume": 57, "typical_volume": 15.4, "trend": 44.746667, "fair_value": 39.296687, "relative_strength": 4.852029, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.590691, "energy": 88.77493, "activity_lines": [ 46.998, 46.338181, 45.373238, 45.079086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.415001, "volume": 411, "typical_volume": 35.2, "trend": 44.944333, "fair_value": 39.390213, "relative_strength": 6.527266, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.601836, "energy": 90.836202, "activity_lines": [ 47.513333, 46.83, 45.729928, 45.315753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.775002, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 35.3, "trend": 45.095167, "fair_value": 39.478482, "relative_strength": 2.543841, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.562091, "energy": 69.032015, "activity_lines": [ 47.639667, 47.128364, 46.000691, 45.498376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }