{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53f402a8-d37a-499f-a03e-23ef4cae50a4", "symbol": "VLYPO", "name": "Valley National Bancorp B Pref", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.278, "architecture_energy": 45.457, "architecture_maturity": 35.518, "architecture_confidence": 68.7, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.28, "rotation_up": 59.62, "upward_expansion": 79.11, "deceleration": 61.02, "rotation_down": 17.34, "downward_expansion": 5.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.897333, 24.842299, 24.716773, 24.603035 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.73, "trend_reference": 24.465436, "distance_from_trend": 0.010814, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.77806, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.135547, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.535698, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.019999, "excess_performance": -0.167455, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010814, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011845, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.135547, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020041, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105357, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037338, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019999, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.645482, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56072, "relative_activity": 1.647812, "balance": 1.645482, "dry_up": 1.198971, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01123, "annualized_volatility": 0.043385, "from_high_reference": -0.014458, "from_low_reference": 0.079141 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.465436, "fair_value_reference": 21.77806, "structural_low": 23.639498, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.005556, "positive_rate": 0.702703, "directional_follow_through": 0.702703, "median_excess_return": -0.01872, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.05925, "worst_return": -0.073439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.021522, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.044454, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.041758, "worst_return": -0.324338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.033721, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.04798, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.159533, "worst_return": -0.300148, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 24.94, "volume": 36254, "typical_volume": 34235.4, "trend": 24.422804, "fair_value": 21.694951, "relative_strength": -5.239388, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.587175, "energy": 71.356258, "activity_lines": [ 24.888667, 24.787014, 24.654224, 24.546581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.02, "volume": 31806, "typical_volume": 33744.1, "trend": 24.452162, "fair_value": 21.736649, "relative_strength": -5.178579, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.28002, "energy": 72.310874, "activity_lines": [ 24.954333, 24.84501, 24.701427, 24.58511 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.73, "volume": 56072, "typical_volume": 34028.15, "trend": 24.465436, "fair_value": 21.77806, "relative_strength": -10.535698, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.277924, "energy": 45.457459, "activity_lines": [ 24.897333, 24.842299, 24.716773, 24.603035 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }