{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53fda142-3b57-49c0-a6be-af2bdbd78b33", "symbol": "DERM", "name": "Journey Medical Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.931, "architecture_energy": 10.627, "architecture_maturity": 33.157, "architecture_confidence": 61.216, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.62, "rotation_up": 20.24, "upward_expansion": 23.78, "deceleration": 57.39, "rotation_down": 35.76, "downward_expansion": 53.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.495333, 6.581273, 6.315595, 6.331946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.43, "trend_reference": 6.627167, "distance_from_trend": -0.029751, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.687628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.130524, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.370772, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.22994, "excess_performance": -0.417394, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029751, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062879, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.130524, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173666, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203708, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.212889, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.22994, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.996484, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1205870, "relative_activity": 0.9347, "balance": 1.996484, "dry_up": 0.64907, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12651, "annualized_volatility": 0.741698, "from_high_reference": -0.327054, "from_low_reference": 0.491879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.627167, "fair_value_reference": 5.687628, "structural_low": 4.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0159, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058015, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.398833, "worst_return": -0.188645, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.206323, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.163611, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.437743, "worst_return": -0.025097, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.133644, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004767, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.363813, "worst_return": -0.096525, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.163065, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.469974, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.453307, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015647, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.143662, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", 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6.748833, "fair_value": 5.605321, "relative_strength": -9.686418, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.437209, "energy": 49.73641, "activity_lines": [ 6.944667, 6.671455, 6.231143, 6.403247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.19, "volume": 871196, "typical_volume": 1317359.3, "trend": 6.691167, "fair_value": 5.633397, "relative_strength": -20.061233, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.911713, "energy": 25.477978, "activity_lines": [ 6.741333, 6.616727, 6.239595, 6.367194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.37, "volume": 578530, "typical_volume": 1320133.1, "trend": 6.655167, "fair_value": 5.660769, "relative_strength": -17.709749, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.046572, "energy": 9.495361, "activity_lines": [ 6.6, 6.597273, 6.272714, 6.346473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.43, "volume": 1205870, "typical_volume": 1290115.1, "trend": 6.627167, "fair_value": 5.687628, "relative_strength": -20.370772, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.931158, "energy": 10.627078, "activity_lines": [ 6.495333, 6.581273, 6.315595, 6.331946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }