{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54054ec1-fd43-4c01-9bd5-2efe17960622", "symbol": "300350", "name": "HPF Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.045, "architecture_energy": 50.952, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.711, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.35, "rotation_up": 27.29, "upward_expansion": 20.48, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 48.71, "downward_expansion": 72.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.119333, 4.099273, 4.384524, 4.731183 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.32, "trend_reference": 5.225667, "distance_from_trend": -0.173311, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.456026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.208215, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.888867, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.300971, "excess_performance": -0.308371, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173311, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143848, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.208215, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203792, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.288889, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011372, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.300971, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.281982, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76026700, "relative_activity": 1.28769, "balance": 0.281982, "dry_up": 1.364124, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07995, "annualized_volatility": 0.349195, "from_high_reference": -0.452471, "from_low_reference": 0.152 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.225667, "fair_value_reference": 5.456026, "structural_low": 3.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.027132, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.000555, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.344828, "worst_return": -0.169877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.006767, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.016145, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.17284, "worst_return": -0.284144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.158824, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.043071, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.207627, "worst_return": -0.243323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003597, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131098, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082677, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.187617, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065574, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", 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"typical_volume": 74357440.15, "trend": 5.460667, "fair_value": 5.460449, "relative_strength": -34.645158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.626452, "energy": 75.488713, "activity_lines": [ 4.02, 4.182727, 4.598429, 4.975054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.82, "volume": 83956799, "typical_volume": 66279314.85, "trend": 5.367333, "fair_value": 5.457179, "relative_strength": -36.304529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.804035, "energy": 69.840834, "activity_lines": [ 3.944667, 4.079636, 4.486667, 4.869204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.2, "volume": 73885756, "typical_volume": 62260325.55, "trend": 5.292, "fair_value": 5.45641, "relative_strength": -28.141517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.081098, "energy": 63.454229, "activity_lines": [ 4.019333, 4.071091, 4.424333, 4.793892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.32, "volume": 76026700, "typical_volume": 59041154.55, "trend": 5.225667, "fair_value": 5.456026, "relative_strength": -28.888867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.044567, "energy": 50.951953, "activity_lines": [ 4.119333, 4.099273, 4.384524, 4.731183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }