{ "ticker": { "uuid": "540bb7d6-a7f7-49e6-abf6-8362c6d03f76", "symbol": "UTES", "name": "Evolve Canadian Utilities Enhanced Yield Index Fund ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.39, "architecture_energy": 38.155, "architecture_maturity": 7.536, "architecture_confidence": 76.74, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.63, "rotation_up": 21.57, "upward_expansion": 29.55, "deceleration": 48.04, "rotation_down": 60.98, "downward_expansion": 43.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.03578, 9.138909, 9.207277, 9.202487 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.73, "trend_reference": 9.133675, "distance_from_trend": -0.044196, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.164261, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069295, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.993272, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000218, "excess_performance": -0.120639, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044196, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03161, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069295, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069338, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119933, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079798, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000218, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.892205, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3266000, "relative_activity": 2.848794, "balance": 0.892205, "dry_up": 1.634328, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031588, "annualized_volatility": 0.150899, "from_high_reference": -0.094204, "from_low_reference": 0.078561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.133675, "fair_value_reference": 8.164261, "structural_low": 8.661103, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049862, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052293, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006173, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032151, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-06", "close": 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9.297276, 9.270669, 9.214537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.350382, "volume": 924700, "typical_volume": 995180.0, "trend": 9.10121, "fair_value": 8.149903, "relative_strength": -3.666526, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.345365, "energy": 20.40364, "activity_lines": [ 9.248547, 9.301122, 9.279416, 9.232894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.02, "volume": 1985500, "typical_volume": 1041690.0, "trend": 9.120106, "fair_value": 8.158604, "relative_strength": -6.428839, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.444259, "energy": 9.477782, "activity_lines": [ 9.17851, 9.241881, 9.256266, 9.227655 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.73, "volume": 3266000, "typical_volume": 1146450.0, "trend": 9.133675, "fair_value": 8.164261, "relative_strength": -11.993272, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.390106, "energy": 38.154513, "activity_lines": [ 9.03578, 9.138909, 9.207277, 9.202487 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }