{ "ticker": { "uuid": "540f8f43-5567-4c35-8d21-7d34f67afa52", "symbol": "688556", "name": "Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.487, "architecture_energy": 87.058, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.251, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.22, "rotation_up": 8.47, "upward_expansion": 21.96, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 77.24, "downward_expansion": 95.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.496667, 9.564364, 10.937857, 11.914151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.84, "trend_reference": 13.069667, "distance_from_trend": -0.323625, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.398459, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.224457, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.669971, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.378777, "excess_performance": -0.335573, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.323625, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013387, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.224457, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.459369, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.2667, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.493511, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.378777, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.306917, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99828488, "relative_activity": 0.664865, "balance": 0.306917, "dry_up": 0.73166, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15985, "annualized_volatility": 0.686069, "from_high_reference": -0.524476, "from_low_reference": 0.197832 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.069667, "fair_value_reference": 11.398459, "structural_low": 7.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.046581, "positive_rate": 0.32, "directional_follow_through": 0.68, "median_excess_return": -0.028004, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.405958, "worst_return": -0.266286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.063212, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.033523, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.752184, "worst_return": -0.401477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.185839, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.213793, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.675781, "worst_return": -0.287003, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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122002808, "typical_volume": 162825760.2, "trend": 13.258667, "fair_value": 11.545111, "relative_strength": -34.299926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.828659, "energy": 89.103737, "activity_lines": [ 9.456, 10.425455, 11.698048, 12.527978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.06, "volume": 99790937, "typical_volume": 155600367.55, "trend": 13.155667, "fair_value": 11.464472, "relative_strength": -31.58282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.751949, "energy": 90.370358, "activity_lines": [ 8.71, 9.871091, 11.260905, 12.192581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.84, "volume": 99828488, "typical_volume": 150148469.9, "trend": 13.069667, "fair_value": 11.398459, "relative_strength": -26.669971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.486859, "energy": 87.058126, "activity_lines": [ 8.496667, 9.564364, 10.937857, 11.914151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }