{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54202012-6873-4b05-94e7-ddf348ff8116", "symbol": "CBRE", "name": "CBRE Group Inc Class A", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.151, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.608, "architecture_energy": 30.932, "architecture_maturity": 10.824, "architecture_confidence": 64.14, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.6, "rotation_up": 60.22, "upward_expansion": 40.53, "deceleration": 25.67, "rotation_down": 15.83, "downward_expansion": 22.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 144.531333, 141.683091, 139.10281, 139.55114 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 148.18, "trend_reference": 143.127333, "distance_from_trend": 0.035302, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 122.662949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208026, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.351063, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126658, "excess_performance": -0.252283, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035302, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046108, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208026, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031948, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123511, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011307, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126658, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.445538, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7830877, "relative_activity": 0.774037, "balance": 1.445538, "dry_up": 0.881816, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065064, "annualized_volatility": 0.383602, "from_high_reference": -0.14971, "from_low_reference": 0.217684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 143.127333, "fair_value_reference": 122.662949, "structural_low": 121.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.003051, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.006659, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.15309, "worst_return": -0.121472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.084164, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.05695, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.225932, "worst_return": -0.155497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.056695, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.070114, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.426865, "worst_return": -0.129259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.072574, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.091219, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.419553, "worst_return": -0.141056, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.181637, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100684, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.120403, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090153, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014403, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064938, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048206, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030661, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023126, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.05308, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011189, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037594, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019733, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05122, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 82.29, "volume": 6071039, "typical_volume": 8308687.5, "trend": 79.406333, "fair_value": 80.522756, "relative_strength": -2.432788, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.333885, "energy": 17.369127, "activity_lines": [ 138.178667, 135.350545, 136.641143, 139.752022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 140.96, "volume": 7551628, "typical_volume": 10490349.45, "trend": 144.991, "fair_value": 121.486026, "relative_strength": -14.420751, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.351607, "energy": 17.008439, "activity_lines": [ 139.600667, 136.492545, 136.978905, 139.447505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 139.46, "volume": 7297954, "typical_volume": 10299428.1, "trend": 144.149333, "fair_value": 121.851795, "relative_strength": -14.494553, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.165925, "energy": 14.605981, "activity_lines": [ 140.019333, 137.459455, 137.205714, 139.090667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 146.81, "volume": 13004632, "typical_volume": 10302463.6, "trend": 143.703333, "fair_value": 122.254936, "relative_strength": -10.544702, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.233091, "energy": 14.518057, "activity_lines": [ 142.360667, 139.589818, 138.12, 139.262323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 148.18, "volume": 7830877, "typical_volume": 10116930.1, "trend": 143.127333, "fair_value": 122.662949, "relative_strength": -12.351063, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.608246, "energy": 30.93166, "activity_lines": [ 144.531333, 141.683091, 139.10281, 139.55114 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }