{ "ticker": { "uuid": "542155f9-075f-464a-b711-e5878ceca0f5", "symbol": "BRLT", "name": "Brilliant Earth Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.83, "architecture_energy": 16.794, "architecture_maturity": 86.986, "architecture_confidence": 66.069, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.93, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 20.44, "deceleration": 42.77, "rotation_down": 25.52, "downward_expansion": 54.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.168667, 1.146182, 1.19, 1.239161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.28, "trend_reference": 1.323333, "distance_from_trend": -0.032746, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.898132, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.325653, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.839936, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.146667, "excess_performance": -0.33412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032746, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168238, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.325653, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01033, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.348399, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039881, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.341081, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1528163, "relative_activity": 4.379349, "balance": 1.341081, "dry_up": 1.567731, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127362, "annualized_volatility": 0.546376, "from_high_reference": -0.587097, "from_low_reference": 0.28 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.323333, "fair_value_reference": 1.898132, "structural_low": 1.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.013333, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.013626, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.345528, "worst_return": -0.246305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.075781, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.155457, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.697842, "worst_return": -0.239691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.155751, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.282309, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.060364, "worst_return": -0.32342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -39.475789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.098511, "energy": 26.550262, "activity_lines": [ 1.146667, 1.138727, 1.205143, 1.263118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.05, "volume": 278798, "typical_volume": 286916.8, "trend": 1.338333, "fair_value": 1.911591, "relative_strength": -44.206318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.096766, "energy": 33.486681, "activity_lines": [ 1.12, 1.12, 1.186095, 1.242925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.28, "volume": 1528163, "typical_volume": 348947.55, "trend": 1.323333, "fair_value": 1.898132, "relative_strength": -34.839936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.82974, "energy": 16.793892, "activity_lines": [ 1.168667, 1.146182, 1.19, 1.239161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }