{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5427baef-efe3-4f2a-8c67-5b578b37ddfe", "symbol": "BXX", "name": "Amundi EURO STOXX 50 Daily (-2x) Inverse UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.342, "architecture_energy": 71.8, "architecture_maturity": 52.334, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 25.94, "upward_expansion": 13.92, "deceleration": 44.96, "rotation_down": 59.6, "downward_expansion": 87.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.402687, 0.408424, 0.428544, 0.447988 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.3838, "trend_reference": 0.467413, "distance_from_trend": -0.178885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.695018, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.447784, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.181135, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.208333, "excess_performance": -0.261645, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178885, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076769, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.447784, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090064, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.291811, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.208333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.447183, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4475050, "relative_activity": 0.386155, "balance": 0.447183, "dry_up": 0.392589, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057161, "annualized_volatility": 0.351911, "from_high_reference": -0.383157, "from_low_reference": 0.011064 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.467413, "fair_value_reference": 0.695018, "structural_low": 0.3796, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.006144, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003492, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 0.170307, "worst_return": -0.144874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.030959, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.034908, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.139037, "worst_return": -0.195922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.159636, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.207167, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.261662, "worst_return": -0.21079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.036858, "energy": 73.996266, "activity_lines": [ 0.41472, 0.422451, 0.447329, 0.462177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4144, "volume": 4248301, "typical_volume": 13800675.65, "trend": 0.474293, "fair_value": 0.702537, "relative_strength": -22.165385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.045113, "energy": 65.965978, "activity_lines": [ 0.414813, 0.419056, 0.441776, 0.458077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4049, "volume": 4338681, "typical_volume": 12385640.45, "trend": 0.470777, "fair_value": 0.698863, "relative_strength": -24.289705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.009561, "energy": 55.867405, "activity_lines": [ 0.411673, 0.415229, 0.435868, 0.4536 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.3838, "volume": 4475050, "typical_volume": 11588738.25, "trend": 0.467413, "fair_value": 0.695018, "relative_strength": -29.181135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.341806, "energy": 71.800241, "activity_lines": [ 0.402687, 0.408424, 0.428544, 0.447988 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }