{ "ticker": { "uuid": "542e0d70-b5a7-419c-9bf7-384adebefa3e", "symbol": "VIPSN", "name": "Vipshop Holdings Limited", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.248, "architecture_energy": 64.513, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.795, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.0, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 45.32, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 235.0, 235.0, 242.934287, 256.895815 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 235.0, "trend_reference": 280.28032, "distance_from_trend": -0.161554, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 294.124694, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.201019, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.276587, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.327074, "excess_performance": -0.272407, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161554, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116497, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.201019, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135809, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242766, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024784, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.327074, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015791, "annualized_volatility": 0.356928, "from_high_reference": -0.328991, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 280.28032, "fair_value_reference": 294.124694, "structural_low": 235.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": 0.012536, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.464493, "worst_return": -0.276191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.047415, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.041349, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.519757, "worst_return": -0.36303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.121511, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.067326, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.558386, "worst_return": -0.542064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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297.026878, "relative_strength": -29.130151, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.725459, "energy": 96.40391, "activity_lines": [ 239.351335, 253.035821, 271.090266, 289.085223 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 235.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9.1, "trend": 306.931931, "fair_value": 296.735959, "relative_strength": -28.124504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.424235, "energy": 90.69848, "activity_lines": [ 235.721334, 248.079457, 265.70947, 284.222827 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 235.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9.1, "trend": 303.124558, "fair_value": 296.421506, "relative_strength": -27.199037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.666647, "energy": 89.033285, "activity_lines": [ 235.0, 243.916365, 260.872584, 279.582057 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 235.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9.1, "trend": 299.317185, "fair_value": 296.106734, "relative_strength": -26.617885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.333064, "energy": 88.566011, "activity_lines": [ 235.0, 240.546547, 256.579608, 275.186924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 235.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9.1, "trend": 295.509812, "fair_value": 295.789092, "relative_strength": -25.558755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.997986, "energy": 68.095099, "activity_lines": [ 235.0, 237.970001, 252.830543, 271.037428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 235.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9.1, "trend": 291.702439, "fair_value": 295.445939, "relative_strength": -25.267032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.65593, "energy": 67.607212, "activity_lines": [ 235.0, 236.186728, 249.625389, 267.13357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 235.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9.1, "trend": 287.895066, "fair_value": 295.066113, "relative_strength": -24.563811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.298145, "energy": 67.081073, "activity_lines": [ 235.0, 235.196727, 246.964145, 263.475348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 235.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.6, "trend": 284.087693, "fair_value": 294.595403, "relative_strength": -24.718334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.398012, "energy": 64.877037, "activity_lines": [ 235.0, 235.0, 244.846811, 260.062763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 235.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.6, "trend": 280.28032, "fair_value": 294.124694, "relative_strength": -24.276587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.248146, "energy": 64.513446, "activity_lines": [ 235.0, 235.0, 242.934287, 256.895815 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }