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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.885, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.408, "architecture_energy": 79.619, "architecture_maturity": 35.627, "architecture_confidence": 73.012, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.59, "rotation_up": 76.52, "upward_expansion": 92.34, "deceleration": 42.17, "rotation_down": 12.3, "downward_expansion": 16.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 101.436387, 100.316937, 99.450733, 98.49022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 104.4382, "trend_reference": 97.574569, "distance_from_trend": 0.070342, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 75.44443, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.384306, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.008817, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.066478, "excess_performance": -0.059147, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070342, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036499, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.384306, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001899, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 8.8e-05, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005237, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066478, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.338556, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22305, "relative_activity": 0.349281, "balance": 1.338556, "dry_up": 0.354041, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020863, "annualized_volatility": 0.173555, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.267331 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 97.574569, "fair_value_reference": 75.44443, "structural_low": 88.609986, 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99.0536, "volume": 42199, "typical_volume": 76156.6, "trend": 96.045106, "fair_value": 74.128842, "relative_strength": -1.28553, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.349683, "energy": 27.361658, "activity_lines": [ 98.729048, 98.792259, 97.787604, 97.214179 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 99.3153, "volume": 72276, "typical_volume": 76219.2, "trend": 96.377163, "fair_value": 74.382697, "relative_strength": -2.357905, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.476968, "energy": 30.687549, "activity_lines": [ 98.960265, 98.896009, 98.006088, 97.425159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 98.8202, "volume": 19543, "typical_volume": 74835.15, "trend": 96.660488, "fair_value": 74.631711, "relative_strength": -1.372239, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.317716, "energy": 26.56647, "activity_lines": [ 98.899307, 98.881753, 98.181745, 97.582774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 99.2661, "volume": 20679, "typical_volume": 73103.8, "trend": 96.912408, "fair_value": 74.880873, "relative_strength": -0.394737, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.37569, "energy": 31.610662, "activity_lines": [ 99.030493, 98.962143, 98.410537, 97.750878 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.1502, "volume": 27909, "typical_volume": 66308.9, "trend": 97.216201, "fair_value": 75.151938, "relative_strength": 0.316092, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.293529, "energy": 52.042392, "activity_lines": [ 99.797347, 99.35991, 98.796332, 98.024284 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 104.4382, "volume": 22305, "typical_volume": 63859.8, "trend": 97.574569, "fair_value": 75.44443, "relative_strength": 0.008817, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.408099, "energy": 79.618762, "activity_lines": [ 101.436387, 100.316937, 99.450733, 98.49022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }