{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54340878-ef04-404a-8885-a479aa7a9e07", "symbol": "4190", "name": "Jarir Marketing Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.069, "architecture_energy": 45.353, "architecture_maturity": 94.114, "architecture_confidence": 74.658, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.99, "rotation_up": 46.95, "upward_expansion": 71.18, "deceleration": 62.66, "rotation_down": 26.79, "downward_expansion": 18.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.054668, 17.086364, 16.472397, 15.840972 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.110001, "trend_reference": 15.053362, "distance_from_trend": 0.136623, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.691386, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.348159, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 23.386148, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.233824, "excess_performance": 0.265654, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.136623, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10542, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.348159, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158415, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.233861, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083809, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.233824, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.547857, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10600525, "relative_activity": 0.895329, "balance": 4.547857, "dry_up": 1.045198, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047591, "annualized_volatility": 0.174161, "from_high_reference": -0.069097, "from_low_reference": 0.448302 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.053362, "fair_value_reference": 12.691386, "structural_low": 12.597968, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.001965, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.011917, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.106556, "worst_return": -0.085322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019862, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.021312, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.118914, "worst_return": -0.140493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.037084, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.067205, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.201849, "worst_return": -0.14904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": 31.164779, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.894756, "energy": 72.986653, "activity_lines": [ 17.214667, 16.680065, 15.808981, 15.216677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.92, "volume": 17082008, "typical_volume": 11073907.3, "trend": 14.629169, "fair_value": 12.626846, "relative_strength": 33.361153, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.626042, "energy": 72.846988, "activity_lines": [ 17.522, 16.994657, 16.079947, 15.440976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.780001, "volume": 10808096, "typical_volume": 11129967.35, "trend": 14.771477, "fair_value": 12.645935, "relative_strength": 23.177045, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.363111, "energy": 66.355712, "activity_lines": [ 17.345334, 17.045508, 16.221566, 15.579739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.620001, "volume": 11009126, "typical_volume": 11424412.3, "trend": 14.909421, "fair_value": 12.666983, "relative_strength": 23.56922, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.667317, "energy": 58.060859, "activity_lines": [ 17.112667, 17.030988, 16.331033, 15.698999 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.110001, "volume": 10600525, "typical_volume": 11839803.2, "trend": 15.053362, "fair_value": 12.691386, "relative_strength": 23.386148, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.069345, "energy": 45.352598, "activity_lines": [ 17.054668, 17.086364, 16.472397, 15.840972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }