{ "ticker": { "uuid": "543a3ca4-b24d-40d6-b705-f4c8afdd8dd7", "symbol": "GDLC", "name": "GRAYSCALE COINDESK CRYPTO 5 ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.282, "architecture_energy": 28.966, "architecture_maturity": 66.877, "architecture_confidence": 78.545, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.12, "rotation_up": 26.56, "upward_expansion": 15.97, "deceleration": 46.3, "rotation_down": 27.71, "downward_expansion": 58.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.89636, 28.518893, 29.90141, 30.702143 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 29.255, "trend_reference": 32.251447, "distance_from_trend": -0.092909, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.478546, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.070637, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.506415, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.088629, "excess_performance": -0.214254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092909, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133618, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.070637, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284107, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.345064, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068995, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088629, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.704097, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 251617, "relative_activity": 1.151989, "balance": 0.704097, "dry_up": 1.110915, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074378, "annualized_volatility": 0.379794, "from_high_reference": -0.527307, "from_low_reference": 0.126492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.251447, "fair_value_reference": 31.478546, "structural_low": 25.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.01081, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033193, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 1.041478, "worst_return": -0.331954, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.117239, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.176244, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.44038, "worst_return": -0.535848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.35708, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.36678, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.899752, "worst_return": -0.457534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.10101, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.228343, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.929211, "worst_return": -0.654932, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.175686, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188275, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.188087, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019866, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.517459, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006959, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.263552, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094192, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022293, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": 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-37.77319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.044774, "energy": 64.044884, "activity_lines": [ 27.97032, 28.958442, 30.857973, 31.861612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.89, "volume": 366996, "typical_volume": 234403.65, "trend": 33.59084, "fair_value": 31.093528, "relative_strength": -35.559089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.223608, "energy": 52.122085, "activity_lines": [ 28.282193, 28.668771, 30.605518, 31.530612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.8778, "volume": 162431, "typical_volume": 231886.65, "trend": 33.17728, "fair_value": 31.22159, "relative_strength": -34.274469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.491988, "energy": 39.340173, "activity_lines": [ 28.556667, 28.506155, 30.357234, 31.226545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.5, "volume": 189538, "typical_volume": 228916.6, "trend": 32.705947, "fair_value": 31.348385, "relative_strength": -34.929012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.668663, "energy": 33.389169, "activity_lines": [ 28.65968, 28.395796, 30.083837, 30.924785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.255, "volume": 251617, "typical_volume": 218419.55, "trend": 32.251447, "fair_value": 31.478546, "relative_strength": -34.506415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.281929, "energy": 28.966426, "activity_lines": [ 28.89636, 28.518893, 29.90141, 30.702143 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }