{ "ticker": { "uuid": "543d239d-b1ea-44c7-84bb-27be43200952", "symbol": "603721", "name": "TVZone Media Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.233, "architecture_energy": 53.426, "architecture_maturity": 17.053, "architecture_confidence": 82.996, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.77, "rotation_up": 14.72, "upward_expansion": 8.41, "deceleration": 47.3, "rotation_down": 64.69, "downward_expansion": 81.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.529333, 16.966364, 19.064501, 19.735437 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.6, "trend_reference": 20.421562, "distance_from_trend": -0.138166, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.841662, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.229478, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.491038, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.144545, "excess_performance": -0.101341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138166, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027567, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.229478, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.366543, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12491, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.298032, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144545, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.857499, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36435990, "relative_activity": 3.151734, "balance": 0.857499, "dry_up": 1.758725, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135978, "annualized_volatility": 0.577288, "from_high_reference": -0.331696, "from_low_reference": 0.258941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.421562, "fair_value_reference": 22.841662, "structural_low": 13.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.053571, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": 0.037015, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.329163, "worst_return": -0.279791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.093416, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.052935, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.618956, "worst_return": -0.171541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.276246, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.130415, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.901999, "worst_return": -0.109123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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20.536626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.4, "volume": 14404400, "typical_volume": 9326642.5, "trend": 20.548085, "fair_value": 22.863565, "relative_strength": -26.650328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.231279, "energy": 86.171489, "activity_lines": [ 15.794, 17.424955, 19.616357, 20.132336 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.27, "volume": 17955830, "typical_volume": 10015999.0, "trend": 20.473841, "fair_value": 22.845326, "relative_strength": -12.093128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.565458, "energy": 73.799074, "activity_lines": [ 16.085333, 17.103636, 19.316967, 19.920846 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.6, "volume": 36435990, "typical_volume": 11560617.5, "trend": 20.421562, "fair_value": 22.841662, "relative_strength": -12.491038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.233108, "energy": 53.426314, "activity_lines": [ 16.529333, 16.966364, 19.064501, 19.735437 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }