{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54406c38-4c00-489a-8532-0d0345f91a35", "symbol": "VANTI", "name": "Vantiva S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.198, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.84, "architecture_energy": 66.417, "architecture_maturity": 42.063, "architecture_confidence": 85.743, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.73, "rotation_up": 10.35, "upward_expansion": 14.72, "deceleration": 37.41, "rotation_down": 68.99, "downward_expansion": 88.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.097207, 0.099198, 0.100808, 0.102463 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.0976, "trend_reference": 0.105603, "distance_from_trend": -0.075787, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.129499, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.246325, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.273422, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.146853, "excess_performance": -0.200165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075787, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013176, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.246325, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005794, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182734, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007567, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146853, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.976403, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 163489, "relative_activity": 0.392289, "balance": 0.976403, "dry_up": 1.276236, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053042, "annualized_volatility": 0.241937, "from_high_reference": -0.374359, "from_low_reference": 0.267532 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.105603, "fair_value_reference": 0.129499, "structural_low": 0.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.019305, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.628571, "median_excess_return": -0.027056, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.458182, "worst_return": -0.732804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.016149, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.006737, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.344406, "worst_return": -0.826324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.107245, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.208789, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.148736, "worst_return": -0.812218, "sufficient": true }, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102985, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102606, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080977, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.236098, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-18", 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15.999125, "activity_lines": [ 0.103213, 0.103109, 0.103202, 0.105037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0997, "volume": 892494, "typical_volume": 417941.6, "trend": 0.10694, "fair_value": 0.131283, "relative_strength": -15.270079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.539444, "energy": 31.543073, "activity_lines": [ 0.10214, 0.102502, 0.10276, 0.104592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0935, "volume": 535563, "typical_volume": 421425.8, "trend": 0.10731, "fair_value": 0.130612, "relative_strength": -20.099256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.152601, "energy": 64.575551, "activity_lines": [ 0.099127, 0.100831, 0.101801, 0.103725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0964, "volume": 535971, "typical_volume": 428419.6, "trend": 0.106237, "fair_value": 0.130047, "relative_strength": -18.106938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.061967, "energy": 63.6189, "activity_lines": [ 0.097727, 0.099845, 0.10121, 0.103021 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0976, "volume": 163489, "typical_volume": 416756.1, "trend": 0.105603, "fair_value": 0.129499, "relative_strength": -18.273422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.840016, "energy": 66.417482, "activity_lines": [ 0.097207, 0.099198, 0.100808, 0.102463 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }