{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5442e18d-ac54-4a65-b5ed-e6826ec9820f", "symbol": "ATM", "name": "The a2 Milk Company Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.857, "architecture_energy": 15.332, "architecture_maturity": 26.688, "architecture_confidence": 64.173, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.65, "rotation_up": 25.15, "upward_expansion": 20.94, "deceleration": 51.4, "rotation_down": 20.41, "downward_expansion": 51.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.339333, 8.284123, 8.101387, 8.616173 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.25, "trend_reference": 9.23411, "distance_from_trend": -0.106573, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.522852, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096659, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.398797, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.15843, "excess_performance": -0.186703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106573, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084051, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096659, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007152, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173988, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013999, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15843, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.130343, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1411143, "relative_activity": 0.749604, "balance": 1.130343, "dry_up": 0.723519, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07673, "annualized_volatility": 0.512778, "from_high_reference": -0.29987, "from_low_reference": 0.382199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.23411, "fair_value_reference": 7.522852, "structural_low": 5.96875, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.015773, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.021346, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.372671, "worst_return": -0.134251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.172345, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.203941, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.41704, "worst_return": -0.236769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.443553, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.431438, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.699551, "worst_return": -0.299443, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037855, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010059, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.229885, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010682, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": 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-40.6565, "energy": 31.827798, "activity_lines": [ 8.01245, 7.581436, 8.364992, 8.950771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.75, "volume": 1098805, "typical_volume": 2005722.7, "trend": 9.520303, "fair_value": 7.444535, "relative_strength": -12.597225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.371386, "energy": 35.273479, "activity_lines": [ 8.408553, 7.796919, 8.317434, 8.898255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.37, "volume": 1751831, "typical_volume": 2022088.75, "trend": 9.461311, "fair_value": 7.463624, "relative_strength": -15.776978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.858751, "energy": 35.354035, "activity_lines": [ 8.49703, 7.946038, 8.244689, 8.824042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.45, "volume": 1217551, "typical_volume": 1992673.65, "trend": 9.395743, "fair_value": 7.484035, "relative_strength": -15.348147, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.235691, "energy": 29.142012, "activity_lines": [ 8.51703, 8.102612, 8.194167, 8.758796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.25, "volume": 1067619, "typical_volume": 1979842.45, "trend": 9.314926, "fair_value": 7.50335, "relative_strength": -16.768979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.73443, "energy": 18.726399, "activity_lines": [ 8.423367, 8.205549, 8.140189, 8.684878 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.25, "volume": 1411143, "typical_volume": 1882516.9, "trend": 9.23411, "fair_value": 7.522852, "relative_strength": -17.398797, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.857475, "energy": 15.331616, "activity_lines": [ 8.339333, 8.284123, 8.101387, 8.616173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }