{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5444f718-e21c-4669-a7cf-d272271f41a9", "symbol": "603886", "name": "Ganso Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.385, "architecture_energy": 67.516, "architecture_maturity": 13.718, "architecture_confidence": 79.315, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.89, "rotation_up": 11.03, "upward_expansion": 16.58, "deceleration": 35.09, "rotation_down": 70.06, "downward_expansion": 85.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.524, 11.261818, 11.562371, 11.748416 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.6, "trend_reference": 12.065661, "distance_from_trend": -0.121474, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.893281, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.177866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.197999, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.179282, "excess_performance": -0.136078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121474, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023188, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.177866, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06379, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011839, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.179282, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.004521, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13597031, "relative_activity": 0.60873, "balance": 1.004521, "dry_up": 0.834082, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109289, "annualized_volatility": 0.420437, "from_high_reference": -0.257757, "from_low_reference": 0.109948 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.065661, "fair_value_reference": 12.893281, "structural_low": 9.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.002809, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006974, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.188406, "worst_return": -0.169207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.024725, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.02587, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.141674, "worst_return": -0.091059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.014994, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047072, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.119923, "worst_return": -0.149921, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 21944982.1, "trend": 12.368948, "fair_value": 12.996617, "relative_strength": -6.782649, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.884244, "energy": 17.161179, "activity_lines": [ 12.072667, 12.122646, 12.03786, 12.13898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.69, "volume": 25069000, "typical_volume": 22294727.1, "trend": 12.240885, "fair_value": 12.960863, "relative_strength": -17.776673, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.355323, "energy": 52.138766, "activity_lines": [ 11.176667, 11.713455, 11.816336, 11.966145 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.42, "volume": 13388600, "typical_volume": 22374532.1, "trend": 12.153908, "fair_value": 12.928248, "relative_strength": -11.63983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.325922, "energy": 59.792249, "activity_lines": [ 10.752667, 11.465636, 11.676759, 11.848668 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.6, "volume": 13597031, "typical_volume": 22336732.1, "trend": 12.065661, "fair_value": 12.893281, "relative_strength": -12.197999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.384516, "energy": 67.516422, "activity_lines": [ 10.524, 11.261818, 11.562371, 11.748416 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }