{ "ticker": { "uuid": "544900e7-9a14-49a0-b03e-5eef2f349d9e", "symbol": "ALOKW", "name": "Groupe OKwind Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.352, "architecture_energy": 66.917, "architecture_maturity": 36.609, "architecture_confidence": 90.885, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.82, "rotation_up": 22.62, "upward_expansion": 16.32, "deceleration": 37.87, "rotation_down": 55.08, "downward_expansion": 89.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.248196, 0.260484, 0.321176, 0.355655 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.265, "trend_reference": 0.388581, "distance_from_trend": -0.318032, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.203567, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.967697, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.444432, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.321383, "excess_performance": -0.374694, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.318032, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153387, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.967697, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006579, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.574444, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031066, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.321383, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.447893, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 680439, "relative_activity": 2.555682, "balance": 1.447893, "dry_up": 1.113969, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.284898, "annualized_volatility": 1.082589, "from_high_reference": -0.816989, "from_low_reference": 0.325 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.388581, "fair_value_reference": 8.203567, "structural_low": 0.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.057437, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.065333, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.375635, "worst_return": -0.492995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.366228, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.387335, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.018373, "worst_return": -0.592275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.533731, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.55664, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.328084, "worst_return": -0.839844, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.265, "volume": 81999, "typical_volume": 229332.0, "trend": 0.406515, "fair_value": 8.518375, "relative_strength": -59.265702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.241687, "energy": 77.462513, "activity_lines": [ 0.256788, 0.282119, 0.349388, 0.375833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.225, "volume": 344826, "typical_volume": 244705.55, "trend": 0.396248, "fair_value": 8.359561, "relative_strength": -64.480913, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.911803, "energy": 77.716417, "activity_lines": [ 0.243392, 0.266156, 0.333074, 0.364122 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.265, "volume": 680439, "typical_volume": 266245.6, "trend": 0.388581, "fair_value": 8.203567, "relative_strength": -57.444432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.351729, "energy": 66.917455, "activity_lines": [ 0.248196, 0.260484, 0.321176, 0.355655 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }