{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5451e0c1-6cae-4ef9-9f06-f156a824895e", "symbol": "002798", "name": "DO and Shuihua Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.701, "architecture_energy": 49.055, "architecture_maturity": 16.004, "architecture_confidence": 92.555, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.25, "rotation_up": 18.05, "upward_expansion": 7.58, "deceleration": 47.49, "rotation_down": 59.07, "downward_expansion": 80.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.242, 5.332727, 5.968714, 6.185742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.6, "trend_reference": 6.400333, "distance_from_trend": -0.125046, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.312436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.05413, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.843969, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.141104, "excess_performance": -0.148504, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125046, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028977, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.05413, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.514288, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14844, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.240523, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.141104, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.495094, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43502324, "relative_activity": 0.641043, "balance": 0.495094, "dry_up": 0.797648, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139286, "annualized_volatility": 0.63583, "from_high_reference": -0.36146, "from_low_reference": 0.22807 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.400333, "fair_value_reference": 5.312436, "structural_low": 4.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.004322, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.002281, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.176656, "worst_return": -0.200913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.029595, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.038544, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.286567, "worst_return": -0.180929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.011568, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.110739, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.149254, "worst_return": -0.272024, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036164, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096672, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022109, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.251309, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007669, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.223765, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.99, "volume": 61486331, "typical_volume": 66106992.1, "trend": 6.457, "fair_value": 5.346474, "relative_strength": -22.859253, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.264759, "energy": 77.412783, "activity_lines": [ 5.257333, 5.696727, 6.311381, 6.419376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.76, "volume": 55909155, "typical_volume": 66396789.55, "trend": 6.419667, "fair_value": 5.333718, "relative_strength": -25.987076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.533557, "energy": 74.307453, "activity_lines": [ 5.05, 5.430909, 6.146095, 6.309892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.3, "volume": 55621398, "typical_volume": 67239411.85, "trend": 6.404667, "fair_value": 5.322949, "relative_strength": -15.727927, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.275624, "energy": 67.230087, "activity_lines": [ 5.102, 5.327273, 6.040429, 6.237656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.6, "volume": 43502324, "typical_volume": 67861807.0, "trend": 6.400333, "fair_value": 5.312436, "relative_strength": -14.843969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.700633, "energy": 49.055229, "activity_lines": [ 5.242, 5.332727, 5.968714, 6.185742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }