{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54523e1b-a9d1-4360-a7fc-ca9c1c496f0e", "symbol": "NOBI", "name": "Nobia AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.358, "architecture_energy": 29.291, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.225, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.87, "rotation_up": 31.94, "upward_expansion": 21.96, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 26.09, "downward_expansion": 60.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.548, 14.902691, 15.37499, 16.761809 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.524, "trend_reference": 19.206615, "distance_from_trend": -0.139671, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.791505, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.426081, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.659623, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.396343, "excess_performance": -0.457837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139671, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200979, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.426081, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018712, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.406596, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053346, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.396343, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.65972, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1632124, "relative_activity": 0.807547, "balance": 0.65972, "dry_up": 0.911153, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088133, "annualized_volatility": 0.439997, "from_high_reference": -0.556473, "from_low_reference": 0.290736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.206615, "fair_value_reference": 28.791505, "structural_low": 12.802, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.055896, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.043554, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 0.295401, "worst_return": -0.229827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.237863, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.140405, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.525836, "worst_return": -0.37556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.258706, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.326868, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.167123, "worst_return": -0.536597, 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21.823533, "fair_value": 29.486112, "relative_strength": -54.952714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.352663, "energy": 89.311087, "activity_lines": [ 13.783867, 14.693236, 16.338229, 18.579396 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.154, "volume": 1598977, "typical_volume": 2360564.6, "trend": 21.258554, "fair_value": 29.301088, "relative_strength": -54.276784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.900304, "energy": 85.940847, "activity_lines": [ 13.503733, 14.271382, 15.855171, 18.020072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.0, "volume": 2501570, "typical_volume": 2397329.3, "trend": 20.830627, "fair_value": 29.187116, "relative_strength": -42.831167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.0448, "energy": 63.477596, "activity_lines": [ 14.288667, 14.441273, 15.706619, 17.68081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.578, "volume": 1825138, "typical_volume": 2289933.35, "trend": 20.368726, "fair_value": 29.051885, "relative_strength": -44.211156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.229902, "energy": 50.387366, "activity_lines": [ 14.796267, 14.556255, 15.558638, 17.341931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.678, "volume": 1407250, "typical_volume": 2125919.0, "trend": 19.825159, "fair_value": 28.913943, "relative_strength": -47.226529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.296921, "energy": 40.491811, "activity_lines": [ 14.902, 14.539636, 15.360667, 16.974787 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.524, "volume": 1632124, "typical_volume": 2021087.45, "trend": 19.206615, "fair_value": 28.791505, "relative_strength": -40.659623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.357729, "energy": 29.291281, "activity_lines": [ 15.548, 14.902691, 15.37499, 16.761809 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }