{ "ticker": { "uuid": "545a64a3-3108-4f84-92c3-d10584204f13", "symbol": "VJPU", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Japan UCITS ETF USD Hedged Accumulation", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.419, "architecture_energy": 31.544, "architecture_maturity": 59.295, "architecture_confidence": 86.963, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.08, "rotation_up": 39.52, "upward_expansion": 63.67, "deceleration": 82.6, "rotation_down": 27.09, "downward_expansion": 20.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.335334, 81.586273, 80.462119, 78.898957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 82.800003, "trend_reference": 76.949333, "distance_from_trend": 0.076033, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.834407, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.482957, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.275031, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.110887, "excess_performance": 0.059652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076033, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067537, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.482957, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003616, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.07275, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063255, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110887, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.387516, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5937, "relative_activity": 0.488429, "balance": 4.387516, "dry_up": 0.640852, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03316, "annualized_volatility": 0.206365, "from_high_reference": -0.016277, "from_low_reference": 0.413693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.949333, "fair_value_reference": 55.834407, "structural_low": 68.110001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.033694, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.011369, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.070606, "worst_return": -0.030474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.028864, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.036753, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.157738, "worst_return": -0.089945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.073085, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.040991, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.226427, "worst_return": -0.027769, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.505333, "energy": 79.670124, "activity_lines": [ 82.616667, 81.609273, 79.184833, 77.597828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 79.82, "volume": 16096, "typical_volume": 15966.35, "trend": 75.693833, "fair_value": 55.022228, "relative_strength": 7.45268, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.865007, "energy": 51.201722, "activity_lines": [ 81.784667, 81.457, 79.435476, 77.89014 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 81.650002, "volume": 4126, "typical_volume": 14885.4, "trend": 76.173167, "fair_value": 55.292404, "relative_strength": 8.104307, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.620543, "energy": 43.378339, "activity_lines": [ 81.596001, 81.59891, 79.8505, 78.274409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 79.614998, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 12543.2, "trend": 76.561333, "fair_value": 55.554808, "relative_strength": 3.787548, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.886086, "energy": 30.390846, "activity_lines": [ 80.865667, 81.310182, 80.023524, 78.496462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 82.800003, "volume": 5937, "typical_volume": 12155.3, "trend": 76.949333, "fair_value": 55.834407, "relative_strength": 7.275031, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.4188, "energy": 31.544478, "activity_lines": [ 81.335334, 81.586273, 80.462119, 78.898957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }