{ "ticker": { "uuid": "545e8741-5d88-49e3-aff3-4ed4c750b32c", "symbol": "OLLI", "name": "Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.332, "architecture_energy": 35.994, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.616, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.25, "rotation_up": 26.34, "upward_expansion": 16.4, "deceleration": 66.56, "rotation_down": 43.36, "downward_expansion": 68.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.262, 72.649091, 76.207857, 81.704129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 81.64, "trend_reference": 90.140667, "distance_from_trend": -0.094304, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 97.427788, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.162046, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.682441, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.274311, "excess_performance": -0.461765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094304, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141329, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.162046, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013679, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.326824, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092348, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.274311, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.676198, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6177866, "relative_activity": 0.685283, "balance": 0.676198, "dry_up": 0.853043, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102467, "annualized_volatility": 0.453535, "from_high_reference": -0.419098, "from_low_reference": 0.354122 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.140667, "fair_value_reference": 97.427788, "structural_low": 60.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.050553, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.024944, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.272431, "worst_return": -0.256422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.076566, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001729, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.236977, "worst_return": -0.303275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.016198, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.211104, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.23817, "worst_return": -0.381463, "sufficient": 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94.163667, "fair_value": 97.405096, "relative_strength": -45.512924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.101087, "energy": 78.599892, "activity_lines": [ 69.034, 73.051273, 78.840333, 85.364989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.31, "volume": 7094913, "typical_volume": 9158232.55, "trend": 92.630667, "fair_value": 97.370673, "relative_strength": -43.935208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.811776, "energy": 74.114926, "activity_lines": [ 67.508, 71.355818, 77.05681, 83.567978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73.47, "volume": 8139120, "typical_volume": 9091049.85, "trend": 91.369, "fair_value": 97.374071, "relative_strength": -37.219709, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.54965, "energy": 56.58172, "activity_lines": [ 69.075333, 71.183636, 76.158095, 82.331806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.64, "volume": 6177866, "typical_volume": 9015063.5, "trend": 90.140667, "fair_value": 97.427788, "relative_strength": -32.682441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.33242, "energy": 35.993795, "activity_lines": [ 73.262, 72.649091, 76.207857, 81.704129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }