{ "ticker": { "uuid": "545f8466-14c5-4630-aa36-a6cab9f4807a", "symbol": "MCA", "name": "Murray Cod Australia Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.303, "architecture_energy": 70.223, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.99, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 58.53, "rotation_down": 55.21, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.146333, 0.147273, 0.165131, 0.229376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.14, "trend_reference": 0.353625, "distance_from_trend": -0.6041, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.063631, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.868375, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -79.47843, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.771429, "excess_performance": -0.835134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.6041, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.453404, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.868375, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01011, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.794784, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01601, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.771429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.350225, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1307098, "relative_activity": 0.726106, "balance": 0.350225, "dry_up": 0.938336, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126374, "annualized_volatility": 0.786741, "from_high_reference": -0.87931, "from_low_reference": 0.076923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.353625, "fair_value_reference": 1.063631, "structural_low": 0.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.033908, "positive_rate": 0.275, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.026169, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.315789, "worst_return": -0.47, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.116027, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.186577, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.304347, "worst_return": -0.72449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.056972, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.17376, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.260869, "worst_return": -0.866337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"amber", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.054622, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.304348, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103448, "active": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -77.219586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.462438, "energy": 63.657272, "activity_lines": [ 0.152667, 0.152273, 0.193292, 0.281411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.145, "volume": 1904824, "typical_volume": 1787869.45, "trend": 0.412625, "fair_value": 1.081783, "relative_strength": -78.777798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.324596, "energy": 64.661188, "activity_lines": [ 0.151333, 0.150455, 0.182548, 0.262285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.145, "volume": 303058, "typical_volume": 1789126.95, "trend": 0.382458, "fair_value": 1.072118, "relative_strength": -78.677738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.396583, "energy": 70.654711, "activity_lines": [ 0.15, 0.149182, 0.173399, 0.245019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.14, "volume": 1307098, "typical_volume": 1800148.35, "trend": 0.353625, "fair_value": 1.063631, "relative_strength": -79.47843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.303134, "energy": 70.223067, "activity_lines": [ 0.146333, 0.147273, 0.165131, 0.229376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }