{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5461c504-ac17-4067-9d7f-06811ea55870", "symbol": "TQQQ", "name": "PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.331, "architecture_energy": 18.715, "architecture_maturity": 73.253, "architecture_confidence": 94.94, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.83, "rotation_up": 25.49, "upward_expansion": 50.02, "deceleration": 81.92, "rotation_down": 36.12, "downward_expansion": 28.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.994667, 70.960528, 71.655585, 67.205243 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 74.47, "trend_reference": 61.783342, "distance_from_trend": 0.205341, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.021526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.860749, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.049322, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.474405, "excess_performance": 0.286951, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.205341, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116879, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.860749, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286638, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.150493, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160084, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.474405, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.601605, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 327134869, "relative_activity": 0.877397, "balance": 1.601605, "dry_up": 0.900443, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138734, "annualized_volatility": 0.63952, "from_high_reference": -0.15264, "from_low_reference": 0.995445 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.783342, "fair_value_reference": 40.021526, "structural_low": 37.32, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.031606, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.027787, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.337935, "worst_return": -0.315083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01975, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00221, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.410634, "worst_return": -0.455125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.414859, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.25039, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.580295, "worst_return": -0.186695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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74.836859, 70.986695, 65.867423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.0, "volume": 273456390, "typical_volume": 394760191.55, "trend": 60.74487, "fair_value": 39.378976, "relative_strength": 5.430639, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.55153, "energy": 19.121012, "activity_lines": [ 69.316, 72.65828, 70.939876, 66.096311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.62, "volume": 409937994, "typical_volume": 383359917.5, "trend": 61.156681, "fair_value": 39.665499, "relative_strength": 5.433588, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.856616, "energy": 14.573758, "activity_lines": [ 67.273333, 70.795416, 70.873359, 66.346319 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.47, "volume": 327134869, "typical_volume": 372847244.95, "trend": 61.783342, "fair_value": 40.021526, "relative_strength": 15.049322, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.330621, "energy": 18.715021, "activity_lines": [ 68.994667, 70.960528, 71.655585, 67.205243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }