{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5468d44e-7106-4c2a-bb53-f659e64725be", "symbol": "IVA", "name": "Inventiva S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.018, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.654, "architecture_energy": 22.565, "architecture_maturity": 74.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.34, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.98, "rotation_up": 36.35, "upward_expansion": 21.66, "deceleration": 44.07, "rotation_down": 17.69, "downward_expansion": 53.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.961333, 3.746, 3.874929, 4.133409 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.23, "trend_reference": 4.512, "distance_from_trend": -0.0625, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.3765, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.252777, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.775764, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.157371, "excess_performance": -0.210682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0625, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005985, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.252777, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105591, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077758, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19382, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.157371, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.952537, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2326243, "relative_activity": 1.752432, "balance": 0.952537, "dry_up": 1.31798, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115385, "annualized_volatility": 0.522931, "from_high_reference": -0.317742, "from_low_reference": 0.46875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.512, "fair_value_reference": 3.3765, "structural_low": 2.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.042941, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.028866, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.599099, "worst_return": -0.311111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.009792, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.071551, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.255717, "worst_return": -0.424648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.052982, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054901, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.303175, "worst_return": -0.595545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069204, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112676, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109568, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127695, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114691, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": 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3.368359, "relative_strength": -13.699743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.168656, "energy": 72.641782, "activity_lines": [ 3.404667, 3.572636, 3.983333, 4.277065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.99, "volume": 1483002, "typical_volume": 1268629.8, "trend": 4.5145, "fair_value": 3.370442, "relative_strength": -8.113012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.620583, "energy": 40.359657, "activity_lines": [ 3.621667, 3.603182, 3.949405, 4.243957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.82, "volume": 1359092, "typical_volume": 1245047.95, "trend": 4.5165, "fair_value": 3.371596, "relative_strength": -12.714876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.167237, "energy": 26.77372, "activity_lines": [ 3.744, 3.613, 3.906429, 4.199151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.775, "volume": 1829806, "typical_volume": 1253654.1, "trend": 4.5075, "fair_value": 3.372109, "relative_strength": -15.367553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.144689, "energy": 26.156529, "activity_lines": [ 3.800333, 3.632636, 3.86569, 4.151312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.23, "volume": 2326243, "typical_volume": 1327436.8, "trend": 4.512, "fair_value": 3.3765, "relative_strength": -7.775764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.653844, "energy": 22.565206, "activity_lines": [ 3.961333, 3.746, 3.874929, 4.133409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }