{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5468f1de-a0fe-4384-bef1-ebfb4e97f4fc", "symbol": "INTG", "name": "The Intergroup Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.099, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.615, "architecture_energy": 28.281, "architecture_maturity": 19.572, "architecture_confidence": 62.227, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.78, "rotation_up": 17.17, "upward_expansion": 17.72, "deceleration": 64.04, "rotation_down": 60.78, "downward_expansion": 40.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.685333, 36.261455, 37.101, 36.666946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 31.36, "trend_reference": 35.340333, "distance_from_trend": -0.112629, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.951755, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.366344, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.747699, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033278, "excess_performance": -0.154175, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112629, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069375, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.366344, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248522, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117477, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.369314, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033278, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.973832, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 699630, "relative_activity": 2.117003, "balance": 0.973832, "dry_up": 1.867149, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.226923, "annualized_volatility": 0.771786, "from_high_reference": -0.396923, "from_low_reference": 1.787556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.340333, "fair_value_reference": 22.951755, "structural_low": 25.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.019722, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.057559, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.361671, "worst_return": -0.215668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.115779, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.13859, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.495677, "worst_return": -0.280867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.127053, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.08044, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.78251, "worst_return": -0.320267, "sufficient": false 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.268584, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046823, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.255043, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.522066, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.262994, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.109041, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.419454, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.287841, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102672, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 35.16, "volume": 40, "typical_volume": 2511.5, "trend": 39.234333, "fair_value": 42.860108, "relative_strength": -31.409647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.258183, "energy": 62.712161, "activity_lines": [ 42.773333, 40.363818, 38.594, 36.765097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.65, "volume": 421138, "typical_volume": 219237.65, "trend": 34.539, "fair_value": 23.023614, "relative_strength": 16.156985, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.537098, "energy": 58.164583, "activity_lines": [ 42.710667, 40.440909, 38.844667, 37.118043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.08, "volume": 500477, "typical_volume": 241369.2, "trend": 34.928333, "fair_value": 23.040794, "relative_strength": 17.719171, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.537004, "energy": 50.175794, "activity_lines": [ 41.982667, 40.410909, 38.984381, 37.411011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.97, "volume": 347198, "typical_volume": 256459.0, "trend": 35.151333, "fair_value": 23.027781, "relative_strength": 2.741596, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.212921, "energy": 14.034362, "activity_lines": [ 39.118667, 39.411091, 38.594333, 37.349183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.44, "volume": 920926, "typical_volume": 298889.4, "trend": 35.223333, "fair_value": 22.976114, "relative_strength": -15.172799, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.750843, "energy": 25.188644, "activity_lines": [ 34.821333, 37.452182, 37.689429, 36.916194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.36, "volume": 699630, "typical_volume": 330481.3, "trend": 35.340333, "fair_value": 22.951755, "relative_strength": -11.747699, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.615279, "energy": 28.281401, "activity_lines": [ 32.685333, 36.261455, 37.101, 36.666946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }