{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54707011-c391-44ed-8306-349006a7cfae", "symbol": "300840", "name": "Qingdao Kutesmart Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.855, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.944, "architecture_energy": 44.671, "architecture_maturity": 6.066, "architecture_confidence": 70.178, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.73, "rotation_up": 19.84, "upward_expansion": 27.52, "deceleration": 46.17, "rotation_down": 62.34, "downward_expansion": 47.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.082, 19.185644, 20.378183, 20.250082 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.65, "trend_reference": 20.130032, "distance_from_trend": 0.02583, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.79969, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.160133, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.293076, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.065532, "excess_performance": 0.058132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02583, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029118, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.160133, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267657, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002931, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023369, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065532, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.825324, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51636832, "relative_activity": 1.21041, "balance": 0.825324, "dry_up": 1.11898, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140232, "annualized_volatility": 0.709272, "from_high_reference": -0.219691, "from_low_reference": 0.429066 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.130032, "fair_value_reference": 17.79969, "structural_low": 14.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.107434, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.05392, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.108624, "worst_return": -0.208432, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.013691, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088399, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.149707, "worst_return": -0.17709, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.227715, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.354466, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.026816, "worst_return": -0.428613, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.425203, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.03318, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.602268, "worst_return": 0.248138, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.900091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001036, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.41121, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.20544, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008745, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.162424, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07039, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114247, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.087817, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.213618, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.200942, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.307299, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.197101, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 12.012004, "volume": 18439701, "typical_volume": 40462971.4, "trend": 11.094551, "fair_value": 12.781415, "relative_strength": 19.84621, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.503869, "energy": 26.449524, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.9, "volume": 43560425, "typical_volume": 43465826.25, "trend": 20.106032, "fair_value": 17.718289, "relative_strength": -26.144381, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.642801, "energy": 42.744054, "activity_lines": [ 18.226667, 19.757841, 20.643763, 20.400365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.25, "volume": 44472206, "typical_volume": 43616589.75, "trend": 20.123365, "fair_value": 17.746855, "relative_strength": -12.407365, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.507504, "energy": 49.520121, "activity_lines": [ 17.472667, 19.096533, 20.346473, 20.216105 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.65, "volume": 51636832, "typical_volume": 42660598.95, "trend": 20.130032, "fair_value": 17.79969, "relative_strength": 0.293076, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.943528, "energy": 44.670844, "activity_lines": [ 18.082, 19.185644, 20.378183, 20.250082 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }