{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54722a31-4c37-4264-90ac-7a2c2acc4f59", "symbol": "83404", "name": "ChinaAMC MSCI India ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 70.382, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 9.014, "architecture_energy": 11.61, "architecture_maturity": 13.406, "architecture_confidence": 73.029, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.63, "rotation_up": 34.11, "upward_expansion": 32.96, "deceleration": 44.01, "rotation_down": 19.09, "downward_expansion": 43.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.558333, 5.535636, 5.506786, 5.534925 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.65, "trend_reference": 5.635333, "distance_from_trend": 0.002603, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.133698, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.078859, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.835007, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.080553, "excess_performance": -0.046972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002603, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050011, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.078859, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023891, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04835, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080136, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.080553, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 2.729098, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017835, "annualized_volatility": 0.195924, "from_high_reference": -0.14329, "from_low_reference": 0.101365 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.635333, "fair_value_reference": 6.133698, "structural_low": 5.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02014, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 6.78, "volume": 428700, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-18", "close": 6.725, "volume": 60000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.495, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 15435.0, "trend": 5.713333, "fair_value": 6.152527, "relative_strength": -4.147429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.468438, "energy": 20.126398, "activity_lines": [ 5.531, 5.491091, 5.485952, 5.560753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.405, "volume": 299000, "typical_volume": 30385.0, "trend": 5.680667, "fair_value": 6.144574, "relative_strength": -6.951616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.938407, "energy": 24.670707, "activity_lines": [ 5.485667, 5.480727, 5.477976, 5.54086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.595, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 27390.0, "trend": 5.656333, "fair_value": 6.138789, "relative_strength": -6.784047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.267499, "energy": 7.564157, "activity_lines": [ 5.513, 5.504818, 5.49, 5.535333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.65, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 27390.0, "trend": 5.635333, "fair_value": 6.133698, "relative_strength": -4.835007, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.013887, "energy": 11.610185, "activity_lines": [ 5.558333, 5.535636, 5.506786, 5.534925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }