{ "ticker": { "uuid": "547a8406-d4b6-40cd-b12d-e94c9ab3f607", "symbol": "PAH3", "name": "Porsche Automobil Holding SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.021, "architecture_energy": 47.283, "architecture_maturity": 83.4, "architecture_confidence": 63.009, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.74, "rotation_up": 27.05, "upward_expansion": 19.07, "deceleration": 65.83, "rotation_down": 47.93, "downward_expansion": 71.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.184666, 28.118637, 28.880215, 29.852288 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.049999, "trend_reference": 31.503763, "distance_from_trend": -0.077888, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.015331, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21519, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.664176, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.177054, "excess_performance": -0.351301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077888, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098224, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.21519, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000459, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.306642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030118, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.177054, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.161765, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100, "relative_activity": 1.470588, "balance": 2.161765, "dry_up": 2.702206, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037977, "annualized_volatility": 0.282597, "from_high_reference": -0.29797, "from_low_reference": 0.079524 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.503763, "fair_value_reference": 37.015331, "structural_low": 26.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.006838, "positive_rate": 0.472222, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": -0.025687, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.132086, "worst_return": -0.15129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.020725, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.041734, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.073026, "worst_return": -0.213835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.043631, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.139238, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.079521, "worst_return": -0.174461, 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27.120001, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 42.0, "trend": 33.059763, "fair_value": 37.512407, "relative_strength": -36.289307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.962112, "energy": 82.715336, "activity_lines": [ 28.003334, 28.730112, 29.707556, 30.99584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.24, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 43.25, "trend": 32.63843, "fair_value": 37.375535, "relative_strength": -34.158059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.436385, "energy": 84.018827, "activity_lines": [ 27.63358, 28.359786, 29.377113, 30.620372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.959999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 43.25, "trend": 32.21343, "fair_value": 37.238711, "relative_strength": -35.002346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.611972, "energy": 88.110273, "activity_lines": [ 27.31, 27.993173, 29.061909, 30.254021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.76, "volume": 535, "typical_volume": 68.0, "trend": 31.82343, "fair_value": 37.121025, "relative_strength": -29.979756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.80688, "energy": 61.064669, "activity_lines": [ 27.730667, 28.012337, 28.9488, 30.031219 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.049999, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 68.0, "trend": 31.503763, "fair_value": 37.015331, "relative_strength": -30.664176, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.020987, "energy": 47.282871, "activity_lines": [ 28.184666, 28.118637, 28.880215, 29.852288 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }