{ "ticker": { "uuid": "547b13a8-8be3-4418-9ed9-cddae6819e15", "symbol": "PREBON", "name": "Prebona AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.309, "architecture_energy": 79.594, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.098, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 13.63, "upward_expansion": 18.63, "deceleration": 38.5, "rotation_down": 73.72, "downward_expansion": 94.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.556, 0.597818, 0.661929, 0.722742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.55, "trend_reference": 0.821333, "distance_from_trend": -0.330357, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.276987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.758453, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.99942, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.45, "excess_performance": -0.511494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.330357, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220993, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.758453, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067379, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.549994, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123302, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.45, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.680467, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 570141, "relative_activity": 2.554797, "balance": 0.680467, "dry_up": 1.173664, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153147, "annualized_volatility": 0.421526, "from_high_reference": -0.735577, "from_low_reference": 0.145833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.821333, "fair_value_reference": 2.276987, "structural_low": 0.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.056004, "positive_rate": 0.26087, "directional_follow_through": 0.717391, "median_excess_return": -0.057312, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.767956, "worst_return": -0.36875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.12, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.110101, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.564014, "worst_return": -0.360248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.204523, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.232752, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.291429, "worst_return": -0.415385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.084158, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18617, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006211, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009901, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.61, "volume": 48633, "typical_volume": 187455.7, "trend": 0.898667, "fair_value": 2.354615, "relative_strength": -50.442682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.995779, "energy": 66.14193, "activity_lines": [ 0.647333, 0.671818, 0.72519, 0.787634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.525, "volume": 193701, "typical_volume": 195227.55, "trend": 0.872167, "fair_value": 2.328622, "relative_strength": -57.241965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.32471, "energy": 78.03582, "activity_lines": [ 0.604, 0.640182, 0.701286, 0.763527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.535, "volume": 235207, "typical_volume": 203780.95, "trend": 0.845, "fair_value": 2.303077, "relative_strength": -56.193602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.952613, "energy": 82.533741, "activity_lines": [ 0.574, 0.615545, 0.680024, 0.741774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.55, "volume": 570141, "typical_volume": 223164.85, "trend": 0.821333, "fair_value": 2.276987, "relative_strength": -54.99942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.308895, "energy": 79.594256, "activity_lines": [ 0.556, 0.597818, 0.661929, 0.722742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }