{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5483a2c2-185e-4594-b8e3-c1383f3bca30", "symbol": "300877", "name": "AnHui Jinchun Nonwoven Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.204, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.553, "architecture_energy": 68.651, "architecture_maturity": 15.287, "architecture_confidence": 79.118, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.22, "rotation_up": 11.12, "upward_expansion": 17.51, "deceleration": 34.35, "rotation_down": 69.34, "downward_expansion": 86.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.373334, 26.342727, 27.952505, 28.364503 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.870001, "trend_reference": 28.955153, "distance_from_trend": -0.141086, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.220198, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.293951, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.678054, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.097793, "excess_performance": -0.105193, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141086, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002099, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.293951, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.346411, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156781, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11455, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097793, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.935267, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6569848, "relative_activity": 0.571978, "balance": 1.935267, "dry_up": 0.799552, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15592, "annualized_volatility": 0.626154, "from_high_reference": -0.338112, "from_low_reference": 0.156744 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.955153, "fair_value_reference": 19.220198, "structural_low": 21.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.018043, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.028845, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.223404, "worst_return": -0.203918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003102, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.016177, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.337176, "worst_return": -0.231096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.068646, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.089152, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.344861, "worst_return": -0.347507, "sufficient": true }, 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4.843035, "activity_lines": [ 29.158666, 29.554164, 29.517596, 29.510448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.620001, "volume": 10051752, "typical_volume": 12316445.55, "trend": 29.246337, "fair_value": 19.153965, "relative_strength": -24.947067, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.241635, "energy": 59.585877, "activity_lines": [ 26.501333, 27.99912, 28.788648, 29.008392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.49, "volume": 9403408, "typical_volume": 11920070.7, "trend": 29.093947, "fair_value": 19.192194, "relative_strength": -16.853224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.766198, "energy": 67.88566, "activity_lines": [ 24.925333, 26.959091, 28.287317, 28.637015 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.870001, "volume": 6569848, "typical_volume": 11486188.3, "trend": 28.955153, "fair_value": 19.220198, "relative_strength": -15.678054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.552584, "energy": 68.650722, "activity_lines": [ 24.373334, 26.342727, 27.952505, 28.364503 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }