{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54858ee8-0438-42cf-9e51-f650fbea5046", "symbol": "BRG", "name": "Breville Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.164, "architecture_energy": 63.384, "architecture_maturity": 17.598, "architecture_confidence": 78.398, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.0, "rotation_up": 67.44, "upward_expansion": 84.24, "deceleration": 50.72, "rotation_down": 17.7, "downward_expansion": 13.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.407333, 31.840909, 30.816714, 30.296653 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 34.43, "trend_reference": 30.070583, "distance_from_trend": 0.144973, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.048045, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.185278, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.184911, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.11038, "excess_performance": 0.046674, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.144973, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017053, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.185278, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.195113, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.081849, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155571, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11038, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.708441, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1331446, "relative_activity": 0.926771, "balance": 0.708441, "dry_up": 1.134324, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048325, "annualized_volatility": 0.306971, "from_high_reference": -0.060371, "from_low_reference": 0.354978 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.070583, "fair_value_reference": 29.048045, "structural_low": 25.41, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.008064, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.001746, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.200145, "worst_return": -0.142908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022125, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.026697, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.307863, "worst_return": -0.25376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.136981, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.039435, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.319342, "worst_return": -0.15046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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60.137197, "activity_lines": [ 31.452667, 30.649091, 29.795809, 29.736414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.049999, "volume": 1312204, "typical_volume": 1522656.9, "trend": 29.81746, "fair_value": 28.847956, "relative_strength": 2.462046, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.68849, "energy": 64.998322, "activity_lines": [ 31.396, 30.839454, 29.965898, 29.820896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.639999, "volume": 1694166, "typical_volume": 1511792.9, "trend": 29.81725, "fair_value": 28.9023, "relative_strength": -1.770566, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.62856, "energy": 23.671288, "activity_lines": [ 30.800666, 30.715818, 30.004809, 29.809447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.860001, "volume": 2180694, "typical_volume": 1519491.15, "trend": 29.921062, "fair_value": 28.972399, "relative_strength": 6.496448, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.598812, "energy": 43.18625, "activity_lines": [ 31.39, 31.170727, 30.348762, 30.005753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.43, "volume": 1331446, "typical_volume": 1436650.55, "trend": 30.070583, "fair_value": 29.048045, "relative_strength": 8.184911, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.163581, "energy": 63.38389, "activity_lines": [ 32.407333, 31.840909, 30.816714, 30.296653 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }