{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "548d861e-3c45-4ecf-8406-9fd8c6d1dc23",
    "symbol": "ASLE",
    "name": "AerSale Corp",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -61.735,
    "architecture_energy": 47.025,
    "architecture_maturity": 50.951,
    "architecture_confidence": 90.815,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.0,
        "rotation_up": 15.61,
        "upward_expansion": 8.0,
        "deceleration": 42.57,
        "rotation_down": 58.38,
        "downward_expansion": 81.33
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        6.064,
        6.176727,
        6.309429,
        6.416817
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 5.9,
    "trend_reference": 6.643333,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.111892,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 7.871122,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.250425,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -26.904958,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.208054,
    "excess_performance": -0.395507,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.111892,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.024116,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.250425,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.014162,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.26905,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.05002,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.208054,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.10027,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2370192,
      "relative_activity": 1.392851,
      "balance": 1.10027,
      "dry_up": 1.021673,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.089136,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.360564,
      "from_high_reference": -0.35307,
      "from_low_reference": 0.061151
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 6.643333,
      "fair_value_reference": 7.871122,
      "structural_low": 5.63,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 31,
        "median_return": 0.011536,
        "positive_rate": 0.516129,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.483871,
        "median_excess_return": -0.004125,
        "regime_survival": 0.806452,
        "best_return": 0.412698,
        "worst_return": -0.257746,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.020065,
        "positive_rate": 0.583333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.416667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.034475,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.939183,
        "worst_return": -0.388215,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.045455,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.073528,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.211165,
        "worst_return": -0.405941,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.138946,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.447584,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.562989,
        "worst_return": -0.432943,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.051364,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.043732,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.124066,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.011885,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.027961,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.032688,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-09-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.012956,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.242386,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.134087,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.061885,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.034667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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      {
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      },
      {
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        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 1747636.55,
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        "stage": 4,
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        "direction": -59.794107,
        "energy": 33.468229,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 6.18,
        "volume": 1218545,
        "typical_volume": 1708648.1,
        "trend": 6.736,
        "fair_value": 7.956442,
        "relative_strength": -20.189736,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.871887,
        "energy": 38.438848,
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          6.19,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 6.2,
        "volume": 1411938,
        "typical_volume": 1676359.2,
        "trend": 6.702,
        "fair_value": 7.903686,
        "relative_strength": -20.138642,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -51.518509,
        "energy": 41.659555,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.165333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 5.9,
        "volume": 2370192,
        "typical_volume": 1701684.0,
        "trend": 6.643333,
        "fair_value": 7.871122,
        "relative_strength": -26.904958,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.734972,
        "energy": 47.024599,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}