{ "ticker": { "uuid": "548f12bd-b1d1-402f-ba07-9f77ec2985ab", "symbol": "CMO", "name": "The Colonial Motor Company Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.139, "architecture_energy": 58.481, "architecture_maturity": 83.828, "architecture_confidence": 79.107, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.48, "rotation_up": 29.19, "upward_expansion": 13.97, "deceleration": 60.84, "rotation_down": 47.05, "downward_expansion": 73.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.052667, 7.074, 7.154286, 7.342589 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.85, "trend_reference": 7.591924, "distance_from_trend": -0.097725, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.156952, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.042889, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.727935, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.188554, "excess_performance": -0.216827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097725, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039659, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.042889, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096277, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137279, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140012, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.188554, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.545737, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17970, "relative_activity": 2.085158, "balance": 0.545737, "dry_up": 1.351669, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024368, "annualized_volatility": 0.176197, "from_high_reference": -0.192311, "from_low_reference": 0.017831 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.591924, "fair_value_reference": 7.156952, "structural_low": 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"relative_strength": -8.093972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.110005, "energy": 35.398715, "activity_lines": [ 7.189333, 7.082727, 7.267762, 7.466651 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.17, "volume": 10817, "typical_volume": 8547.55, "trend": 7.674667, "fair_value": 7.168078, "relative_strength": -9.559368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.735532, "energy": 37.981976, "activity_lines": [ 7.198667, 7.099455, 7.238857, 7.431357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.08, "volume": 2856, "typical_volume": 8292.35, "trend": 7.631239, "fair_value": 7.163362, "relative_strength": -10.173831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.655062, "energy": 36.955154, "activity_lines": [ 7.166667, 7.105636, 7.205333, 7.392991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.85, "volume": 17970, "typical_volume": 8618.05, "trend": 7.591924, "fair_value": 7.156952, "relative_strength": -13.727935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.138822, "energy": 58.480967, "activity_lines": [ 7.052667, 7.074, 7.154286, 7.342589 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }