{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5492a291-7f0f-4292-a00d-c4e19cfaf3b8", "symbol": "AERO", "name": "Svenska Aerogel Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.85, "architecture_energy": 91.875, "architecture_maturity": 52.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.72, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.29, "rotation_up": 12.93, "upward_expansion": 21.64, "deceleration": 37.14, "rotation_down": 81.83, "downward_expansion": 99.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.751733, 0.828073, 0.936902, 1.064286 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.686, "trend_reference": 1.225712, "distance_from_trend": -0.440325, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.812891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.912196, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.681775, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.580428, "excess_performance": -0.641923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.440325, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13685, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.912196, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012768, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.576818, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126428, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.580428, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.37505, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 531089, "relative_activity": 1.009983, "balance": 0.37505, "dry_up": 0.828061, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16192, "annualized_volatility": 0.672247, "from_high_reference": -0.818997, "from_low_reference": 0.023881 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.225712, "fair_value_reference": 7.812891, "structural_low": 0.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.010337, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.011359, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 1.07, "worst_return": -0.652174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.108939, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.200675, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 1.983334, "worst_return": -0.744286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.189378, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.163498, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.996667, "worst_return": -0.826214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.190141, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.802913, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.315603, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.322115, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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1.345579, "fair_value": 8.549305, "relative_strength": -45.606847, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.684527, "energy": 79.464543, "activity_lines": [ 0.979867, 1.024509, 1.123882, 1.231213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.86, "volume": 340379, "typical_volume": 558885.55, "trend": 1.325579, "fair_value": 8.409552, "relative_strength": -48.625449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.136166, "energy": 83.821762, "activity_lines": [ 0.933467, 0.992309, 1.085133, 1.199885 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.848, "volume": 389514, "typical_volume": 553532.25, "trend": 1.302512, "fair_value": 8.268577, "relative_strength": -48.031053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.076777, "energy": 78.320876, "activity_lines": [ 0.897733, 0.960564, 1.049431, 1.169073 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.79, "volume": 448938, "typical_volume": 552597.65, "trend": 1.277845, "fair_value": 8.096634, "relative_strength": -51.536828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.766279, "energy": 89.222371, "activity_lines": [ 0.8528, 0.920673, 1.012525, 1.136008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.73, "volume": 372168, "typical_volume": 540105.95, "trend": 1.249845, "fair_value": 7.94804, "relative_strength": -55.00493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.060717, "energy": 91.184672, "activity_lines": [ 0.801067, 0.875236, 0.974213, 1.100663 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.686, "volume": 531089, "typical_volume": 525839.7, "trend": 1.225712, "fair_value": 7.812891, "relative_strength": -57.681775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.850298, "energy": 91.875062, "activity_lines": [ 0.751733, 0.828073, 0.936902, 1.064286 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }