{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5492fe92-b31a-4b8a-8388-6cb9d5dec6be", "symbol": "JUIE", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - US Research Enhanced Index Equity Active UCITS ETF - EUR (acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.217, "architecture_energy": 72.688, "architecture_maturity": 75.019, "architecture_confidence": 74.74, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.35, "rotation_up": 60.08, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 67.47, "rotation_down": 29.13, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.785, 30.627, 30.156404, 29.508849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.43, "trend_reference": 28.7535, "distance_from_trend": 0.093084, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.795968, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.172938, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.141099, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.148967, "excess_performance": -0.021924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093084, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040223, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.172938, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053839, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031411, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009795, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.148967, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.158352, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8691, "relative_activity": 1.076092, "balance": 5.158352, "dry_up": 0.836104, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014379, "annualized_volatility": 0.107064, "from_high_reference": -0.00333, "from_low_reference": 0.233516 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.7535, "fair_value_reference": 26.795968, "structural_low": 26.15, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.010248, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00225, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.031191, "worst_return": -0.00998, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.071416, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.018399, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.071416, "worst_return": 0.071416, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.071416, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 24.879999, "volume": 738, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 25.77, "volume": 38, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.860194, "energy": 65.435124, "activity_lines": [ 30.549333, 30.391909, 29.673143, 29.078398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.584999, "volume": 883, "typical_volume": 7490.0, "trend": 28.536333, "fair_value": 26.707033, "relative_strength": -2.457893, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.58138, "energy": 66.732457, "activity_lines": [ 30.584333, 30.449, 29.831381, 29.217742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.254999, "volume": 3619, "typical_volume": 7670.95, "trend": 28.6365, "fair_value": 26.745598, "relative_strength": -4.070786, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.185112, "energy": 63.939834, "activity_lines": [ 30.492333, 30.432727, 29.944166, 29.328623 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.43, "volume": 8691, "typical_volume": 8076.45, "trend": 28.7535, "fair_value": 26.795968, "relative_strength": -3.141099, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.217473, "energy": 72.687786, "activity_lines": [ 30.785, 30.627, 30.156404, 29.508849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }