{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54a060c9-2a03-4d2e-af52-2ee53dac2437", "symbol": "000912", "name": "Sichuan Lutianhua Company Limited By Shares", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.254, "architecture_energy": 46.907, "architecture_maturity": 71.676, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.89, "rotation_up": 27.9, "upward_expansion": 22.02, "deceleration": 45.65, "rotation_down": 37.66, "downward_expansion": 69.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.555333, 3.501636, 3.753476, 4.059075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.62, "trend_reference": 4.348667, "distance_from_trend": -0.167561, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.31859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161763, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.907796, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.244259, "excess_performance": -0.251659, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167561, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062248, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161763, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184252, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199078, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014118, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.244259, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.418041, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77547778, "relative_activity": 0.424456, "balance": 0.418041, "dry_up": 0.576921, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072886, "annualized_volatility": 0.536947, "from_high_reference": -0.459701, "from_low_reference": 0.13125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.348667, "fair_value_reference": 4.31859, "structural_low": 3.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.026531, "positive_rate": 0.62069, "directional_follow_through": 0.37931, "median_excess_return": 0.02009, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.203297, "worst_return": -0.110535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.011468, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.007234, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.297297, "worst_return": -0.135714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.012226, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.047533, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.380734, "worst_return": -0.119048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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{ "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016055, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086242, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049887, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063981, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037578, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", 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3.51, "volume": 110814491, "typical_volume": 285563074.9, "trend": 4.410667, "fair_value": 4.339744, "relative_strength": -21.229837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.81147, "energy": 82.545166, "activity_lines": [ 3.410667, 3.506182, 3.959714, 4.218043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.48, "volume": 140165952, "typical_volume": 259740697.4, "trend": 4.387, "fair_value": 4.332308, "relative_strength": -21.529235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.369577, "energy": 70.358358, "activity_lines": [ 3.440667, 3.476, 3.872333, 4.158 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.6, "volume": 93084323, "typical_volume": 223788951.6, "trend": 4.366333, "fair_value": 4.325641, "relative_strength": -16.862019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.189757, "energy": 53.933413, "activity_lines": [ 3.506, 3.483273, 3.80619, 4.107226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.62, "volume": 77547778, "typical_volume": 182699323.45, "trend": 4.348667, "fair_value": 4.31859, "relative_strength": -19.907796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.254431, "energy": 46.907407, "activity_lines": [ 3.555333, 3.501636, 3.753476, 4.059075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }