{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54a28307-2bbe-4c29-a1eb-7672497e9e77", "symbol": "CAV", "name": "Carnavale Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.294, "architecture_energy": 61.549, "architecture_maturity": 36.087, "architecture_confidence": 93.642, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.18, "rotation_up": 24.99, "upward_expansion": 11.78, "deceleration": 48.94, "rotation_down": 56.63, "downward_expansion": 85.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.081533, 0.0828, 0.090924, 0.097101 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.085, "trend_reference": 0.106, "distance_from_trend": -0.198113, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.076114, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.116746, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.095732, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.291667, "excess_performance": -0.355372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.198113, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002998, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.116746, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.442716, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130957, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.49114, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.291667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.779198, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 899419, "relative_activity": 0.899062, "balance": 0.779198, "dry_up": 0.773379, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085068, "annualized_volatility": 0.580947, "from_high_reference": -0.484848, "from_low_reference": 0.47572 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.106, "fair_value_reference": 0.076114, "structural_low": 0.075, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.019717, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 1.000023, "worst_return": -0.333341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.111113, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.109456, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 1.000023, "worst_return": -0.400006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.225004, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.233805, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.000012, "worst_return": -0.285717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 1300126.2, "trend": 0.107067, "fair_value": 0.076343, "relative_strength": -13.784774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.616143, "energy": 89.1487, "activity_lines": [ 0.081867, 0.086964, 0.095867, 0.101953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.082, "volume": 826107, "typical_volume": 1244883.15, "trend": 0.1068, "fair_value": 0.076315, "relative_strength": -10.707245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.173581, "energy": 85.043828, "activity_lines": [ 0.081267, 0.085073, 0.094095, 0.100335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.078, "volume": 344211, "typical_volume": 1194976.5, "trend": 0.106333, "fair_value": 0.076215, "relative_strength": -17.307741, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.148159, "energy": 86.599848, "activity_lines": [ 0.08, 0.083055, 0.0921, 0.098477 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.085, "volume": 899419, "typical_volume": 1000397.6, "trend": 0.106, "fair_value": 0.076114, "relative_strength": -13.095732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.293664, "energy": 61.54887, "activity_lines": [ 0.081533, 0.0828, 0.090924, 0.097101 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }