{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54a7be1a-9573-4f34-b0af-d9ec49b8d65f", "symbol": "FLDZ", "name": "RIVERNORTH PATRIOT ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.637, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.939, "architecture_energy": 31.496, "architecture_maturity": 46.535, "architecture_confidence": 86.116, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.92, "rotation_up": 39.23, "upward_expansion": 62.86, "deceleration": 94.21, "rotation_down": 32.2, "downward_expansion": 19.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.85204, 30.744593, 30.565548, 30.332059 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.965, "trend_reference": 30.10692, "distance_from_trend": 0.094931, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.885846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.22611, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.988073, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.094819, "excess_performance": -0.030806, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094931, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018642, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.22611, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071076, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009881, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068049, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094819, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 43.866667, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34065, "relative_activity": 17.904917, "balance": 43.866667, "dry_up": 4.631284, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026923, "annualized_volatility": 0.187359, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.189752 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.10692, "fair_value_reference": 26.885846, "structural_low": 28.4555, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.012845, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001923, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.070274, "worst_return": -0.04876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034313, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.012742, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.084754, "worst_return": -0.091123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.06934, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.030096, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.097374, "worst_return": 0.044987, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.132034, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.085218, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.205044, "worst_return": 0.059023, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017629, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013032, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06973, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102993, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009552, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022718, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006451, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.030917, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03541, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"trend": 29.920754, "fair_value": 26.628679, "relative_strength": -3.166127, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.064978, "energy": 87.809409, "activity_lines": [ 31.090033, 30.779378, 30.366246, 30.167525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.5206, "volume": 164, "typical_volume": 281.8, "trend": 29.959004, "fair_value": 26.682056, "relative_strength": -6.961568, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.807597, "energy": 66.721997, "activity_lines": [ 30.95902, 30.766673, 30.4098, 30.206224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.0964, "volume": 110, "typical_volume": 286.1, "trend": 29.956653, "fair_value": 26.723325, "relative_strength": -9.629683, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.687494, "energy": 12.673833, "activity_lines": [ 30.33938, 30.49594, 30.31671, 30.150572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.887, "volume": 388, "typical_volume": 304.5, "trend": 29.976323, "fair_value": 26.769342, "relative_strength": -6.405061, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.386147, "energy": 18.891854, "activity_lines": [ 30.106227, 30.388842, 30.304209, 30.146079 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.8953, "volume": 682, "typical_volume": 337.1, "trend": 30.001283, "fair_value": 26.817674, "relative_strength": -7.152838, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.212176, "energy": 26.163144, "activity_lines": [ 29.918387, 30.283535, 30.290918, 30.140851 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.965, "volume": 34065, "typical_volume": 1902.55, "trend": 30.10692, "fair_value": 26.885846, "relative_strength": -0.988073, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.939374, "energy": 31.496316, "activity_lines": [ 30.85204, 30.744593, 30.565548, 30.332059 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }