{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54a9b650-9f06-4d38-99bf-1826be456df7", "symbol": "002384", "name": "Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.702, "architecture_energy": 22.66, "architecture_maturity": 75.278, "architecture_confidence": 90.832, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.99, "rotation_up": 17.62, "upward_expansion": 52.15, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 38.06, "downward_expansion": 20.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 199.063332, 216.675272, 215.016191, 194.076796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 195.270004, "trend_reference": 162.255667, "distance_from_trend": 0.203471, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.862118, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.434097, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 58.575278, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.524173, "excess_performance": 1.516773, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.203471, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.447122, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.434097, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.802618, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.585753, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.753126, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.524173, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.68254, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 491073194, "relative_activity": 1.363453, "balance": 0.68254, "dry_up": 1.486485, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.200413, "annualized_volatility": 0.798557, "from_high_reference": -0.302806, "from_low_reference": 3.011298 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 162.255667, "fair_value_reference": 56.862118, "structural_low": 67.18, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.031734, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.007399, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.233842, "worst_return": -0.253954, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.061433, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.005305, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 1.732549, "worst_return": -0.343077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.347625, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.188729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.700361, "worst_return": 0.109284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09731, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095338, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.154213, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.340162, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085466, "active": 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171.479996, "volume": 512147309, "typical_volume": 360482569.05, "trend": 158.568334, "fair_value": 55.751305, "relative_strength": 49.649872, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.592285, "energy": 17.925282, "activity_lines": [ 206.480663, 222.497817, 215.075095, 191.708947 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 195.270004, "volume": 491073194, "typical_volume": 360168713.65, "trend": 162.255667, "fair_value": 56.862118, "relative_strength": 58.575278, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.701736, "energy": 22.660046, "activity_lines": [ 199.063332, 216.675272, 215.016191, 194.076796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }