{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54bc6d33-6509-4e52-964d-cf141ce722f8", "symbol": "002156", "name": "Tongfu Microelectronics Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.822, "architecture_energy": 20.545, "architecture_maturity": 78.06, "architecture_confidence": 95.795, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.81, "rotation_up": 32.34, "upward_expansion": 61.04, "deceleration": 88.02, "rotation_down": 26.84, "downward_expansion": 15.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.874, 66.756363, 63.913362, 60.038475 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 64.720001, "trend_reference": 55.593304, "distance_from_trend": 0.164169, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.578198, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.049515, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 34.030173, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.24459, "excess_performance": 0.237191, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.164169, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.210074, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.049515, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006967, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.340302, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063651, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.24459, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.799468, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 791663238, "relative_activity": 1.394274, "balance": 1.799468, "dry_up": 1.793494, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.19736, "annualized_volatility": 0.736657, "from_high_reference": -0.235891, "from_low_reference": 1.423088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.593304, "fair_value_reference": 31.578198, "structural_low": 40.354248, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.09219, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.073561, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.377227, "worst_return": -0.183811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.085263, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.06333, "regime_survival": 0.1, "best_return": 0.133544, "worst_return": -0.209742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.157016, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.056515, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.339172, "worst_return": -0.28433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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52.685447, "fair_value": 30.752242, "relative_strength": 53.992141, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.053462, "energy": 44.546208, "activity_lines": [ 68.764666, 67.027667, 61.453449, 57.673042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.639999, "volume": 1126932750, "typical_volume": 513175011.85, "trend": 54.049131, "fair_value": 31.100194, "relative_strength": 68.602889, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.850139, "energy": 47.333338, "activity_lines": [ 71.379333, 69.064693, 63.392547, 59.218497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.73, "volume": 965753242, "typical_volume": 545757739.7, "trend": 54.691214, "fair_value": 31.319815, "relative_strength": 25.286104, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.32366, "energy": 25.150302, "activity_lines": [ 66.799333, 67.123818, 63.298483, 59.391457 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.720001, "volume": 791663238, "typical_volume": 567796101.4, "trend": 55.593304, "fair_value": 31.578198, "relative_strength": 34.030173, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.822449, "energy": 20.545244, "activity_lines": [ 65.874, 66.756363, 63.913362, 60.038475 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }