{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54be02e7-9085-4267-96e2-1f6946b3be9c", "symbol": "XLPS", "name": "Invesco Consumer Staples S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.066, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.69, "architecture_energy": 3.922, "architecture_maturity": 20.871, "architecture_confidence": 79.363, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 78.67, "rotation_up": 34.68, "upward_expansion": 34.92, "deceleration": 36.14, "rotation_down": 31.42, "downward_expansion": 19.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 758.786682, 757.82637, 757.489288, 757.75398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 758.400024, "trend_reference": 757.953335, "distance_from_trend": 0.000589, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 674.985392, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.12358, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.402976, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035114, "excess_performance": -0.08635, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000589, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029005, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.12358, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036791, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04403, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046917, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035114, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.286388, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8513, "relative_activity": 3.505456, "balance": 0.286388, "dry_up": 1.353407, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03654, "annualized_volatility": 0.156992, "from_high_reference": -0.059757, "from_low_reference": 0.138739 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 757.953335, "fair_value_reference": 674.985392, "structural_low": 722.299988, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.007672, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007503, "regime_survival": 0.388889, "best_return": 0.104287, "worst_return": -0.034422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.017222, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.009282, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.084249, "worst_return": -0.028572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044066, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.026878, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.113276, 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.644704, "energy": 12.496754, "activity_lines": [ 758.466675, 757.240002, 757.122381, 757.602796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 758.400024, "volume": 8513, "typical_volume": 2428.5, "trend": 757.953335, "fair_value": 674.985392, "relative_strength": -4.402976, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.690252, "energy": 3.922219, "activity_lines": [ 758.786682, 757.82637, 757.489288, 757.75398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }