{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54be33e8-cdd9-4b6d-8c42-b02a85998b65", "symbol": "ICFI", "name": "ICF International Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 94.978, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 63.034, "architecture_energy": 74.124, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.687, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.05, "rotation_up": 80.55, "upward_expansion": 67.31, "deceleration": 18.11, "rotation_down": 16.55, "downward_expansion": 23.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.786, 80.061091, 75.285332, 74.180436 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 95.0, "trend_reference": 75.536906, "distance_from_trend": 0.257663, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 111.165378, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.145417, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.834734, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.095625, "excess_performance": -0.091829, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.257663, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029175, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.145417, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.249758, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018347, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.333475, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095625, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.994973, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1420633, "relative_activity": 0.87367, "balance": 2.994973, "dry_up": 0.754581, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080073, "annualized_volatility": 0.505888, "from_high_reference": -0.059106, "from_low_reference": 0.618058 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.536906, "fair_value_reference": 111.165378, "structural_low": 58.712374, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.048033, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.095903, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.033352, "worst_return": -0.186135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.131766, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.152655, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.046802, "worst_return": -0.303504, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.208544, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.275546, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.217513, "worst_return": -0.271018, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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76.251679, 72.977323, 72.921506 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 95.0, "volume": 1420633, "typical_volume": 1626052.85, "trend": 75.536906, "fair_value": 111.165378, "relative_strength": 1.834734, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 63.033754, "energy": 74.123719, "activity_lines": [ 84.786, 80.061091, 75.285332, 74.180436 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }