{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54c0898f-8944-4b6e-9dde-eb7fb08fa944", "symbol": "XFN", "name": "iShares S&P/TSX Capped Financials Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.987, "architecture_energy": 66.819, "architecture_maturity": 88.437, "architecture_confidence": 84.242, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.51, "rotation_up": 57.02, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.43, "rotation_down": 28.39, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 96.032778, 95.300545, 91.904328, 88.499733 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 96.190002, "trend_reference": 84.494984, "distance_from_trend": 0.138411, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 60.319776, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.594668, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.557376, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.23299, "excess_performance": 0.112568, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.138411, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080465, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.594668, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085265, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.085574, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035731, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.23299, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.464286, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 280900, "relative_activity": 0.565652, "balance": 2.464286, "dry_up": 0.921123, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024572, "annualized_volatility": 0.137349, "from_high_reference": -0.018708, "from_low_reference": 0.4968 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.494984, "fair_value_reference": 60.319776, "structural_low": 73.169148, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.019995, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001024, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.077004, "worst_return": -0.089723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.051209, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.021137, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.180967, "worst_return": -0.046828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.108512, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.026006, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.258904, "worst_return": -0.125939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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94.591064, "activity_lines": [ 94.512565, 92.136446, 87.905906, 85.116762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 97.1353, "volume": 593800, "typical_volume": 589455.0, "trend": 82.726259, "fair_value": 59.283841, "relative_strength": 13.998275, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.231808, "energy": 94.467658, "activity_lines": [ 95.634487, 93.42106, 89.143234, 86.089469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 95.398064, "volume": 532200, "typical_volume": 566590.0, "trend": 83.319468, "fair_value": 59.624998, "relative_strength": 11.34299, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.3874, "energy": 84.167088, "activity_lines": [ 95.78212, 94.161088, 90.124705, 86.907005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 95.730003, "volume": 422800, "typical_volume": 528685.0, "trend": 83.91326, "fair_value": 59.971322, "relative_strength": 11.87078, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.776987, "energy": 67.288607, "activity_lines": [ 95.90275, 94.764327, 91.043866, 87.707685 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 96.190002, "volume": 280900, "typical_volume": 496595.0, "trend": 84.494984, "fair_value": 60.319776, "relative_strength": 8.557376, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.987349, "energy": 66.819386, "activity_lines": [ 96.032778, 95.300545, 91.904328, 88.499733 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }