{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54c126ea-fb9c-498e-863e-af5ff962d2f9", "symbol": "00648R", "name": "Yuanta Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.489, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.15, "architecture_energy": 53.266, "architecture_maturity": 58.347, "architecture_confidence": 91.76, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.57, "rotation_up": 27.69, "upward_expansion": 7.57, "deceleration": 57.14, "rotation_down": 49.66, "downward_expansion": 78.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.005333, 4.022364, 4.049476, 4.127075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.91, "trend_reference": 4.213333, "distance_from_trend": -0.071994, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.219615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.250903, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.832122, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.094907, "excess_performance": -0.474219, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071994, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027393, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.250903, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00215, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.348321, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066399, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.094907, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.612626, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10584385, "relative_activity": 1.754703, "balance": 0.612626, "dry_up": 1.708048, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022428, "annualized_volatility": 0.147996, "from_high_reference": -0.175105, "from_low_reference": 0.007732 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.213333, "fair_value_reference": 5.219615, "structural_low": 3.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.007987, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.037375, "regime_survival": 0.911111, "best_return": 0.093502, "worst_return": -0.060606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.068891, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.071759, "worst_return": -0.087859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.075587, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.1635, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.148148, "worst_return": -0.122378, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.14377, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009009, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117958, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002041, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.07384, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", 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"typical_volume": 5616770.45, "trend": 4.237, "fair_value": 5.251538, "relative_strength": -33.114407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.124298, "energy": 36.857877, "activity_lines": [ 4.055333, 4.041818, 4.087476, 4.16028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.04, "volume": 19643347, "typical_volume": 5887537.8, "trend": 4.227667, "fair_value": 5.235962, "relative_strength": -31.990456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.776728, "energy": 33.648867, "activity_lines": [ 4.05, 4.044182, 4.073571, 4.14757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.91, "volume": 10584385, "typical_volume": 6032008.95, "trend": 4.213333, "fair_value": 5.219615, "relative_strength": -34.832122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.149979, "energy": 53.265843, "activity_lines": [ 4.005333, 4.022364, 4.049476, 4.127075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }