{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54c13369-b047-4d06-a9b8-42e94d914934", "symbol": "IRTR", "name": "ISHARES TRUST LIFEPATH RETIREMENT ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.966, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.808, "architecture_energy": 33.223, "architecture_maturity": 34.031, "architecture_confidence": 79.354, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.2, "rotation_up": 36.57, "upward_expansion": 63.46, "deceleration": 92.0, "rotation_down": 27.65, "downward_expansion": 12.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.775066, 31.774202, 31.698681, 31.507912 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.0907, "trend_reference": 31.296198, "distance_from_trend": 0.025387, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.045499, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.144237, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.127707, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.03376, "excess_performance": -0.091865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025387, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014855, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.144237, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000759, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071277, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010993, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.03376, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.023478, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49501, "relative_activity": 0.762989, "balance": 2.023478, "dry_up": 0.861829, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011984, "annualized_volatility": 0.072783, "from_high_reference": -0.001844, "from_low_reference": 0.10175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.296198, "fair_value_reference": 28.045499, "structural_low": 29.920337, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.022307, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045598, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.049094, "worst_return": -0.004479, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.063227, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.091072, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.063227, "worst_return": 0.063227, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009009, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006114, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.084412, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046959, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004082, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014685, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 22.663022, "volume": 115, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-10-27", "close": 22.561197, "volume": 150, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-03", "close": 23.369895, "volume": 1524, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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65630.9, "trend": 31.253561, "fair_value": 28.017792, "relative_strength": -5.451198, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.686702, "energy": 18.901447, "activity_lines": [ 31.64134, 31.712075, 31.633046, 31.453903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.0907, "volume": 49501, "typical_volume": 64877.7, "trend": 31.296198, "fair_value": 28.045499, "relative_strength": -7.127707, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.808099, "energy": 33.223259, "activity_lines": [ 31.775066, 31.774202, 31.698681, 31.507912 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }