{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54c7c07d-4dc3-423e-89e3-3cd4a21c9b47", "symbol": "LCUA", "name": "Amundi MSCI EM Asia ESG Broad Transition UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.726, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.123, "architecture_energy": 25.574, "architecture_maturity": 65.574, "architecture_confidence": 85.553, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.8, "rotation_up": 17.89, "upward_expansion": 52.48, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 36.97, "downward_expansion": 18.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.163733, 16.514182, 16.457181, 15.994533 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 16.266001, "trend_reference": 15.386333, "distance_from_trend": 0.057172, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.974467, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.253693, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.259269, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.160862, "excess_performance": 0.096222, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057172, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086657, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.253693, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086046, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.052593, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206499, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.160862, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.492817, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 528655, "relative_activity": 1.842355, "balance": 0.492817, "dry_up": 2.011334, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050081, "annualized_volatility": 0.251015, "from_high_reference": -0.095026, "from_low_reference": 0.384576 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.386333, "fair_value_reference": 12.974467, "structural_low": 13.124, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038955, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007807, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 11.022, "volume": 56021, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 11.176, "volume": 73874, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.612004, "energy": 36.899925, "activity_lines": [ 16.7688, 16.893454, 16.35861, 15.816009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.139999, "volume": 302679, "typical_volume": 250421.4, "trend": 15.2156, "fair_value": 12.902041, "relative_strength": 10.466414, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.104798, "energy": 24.488427, "activity_lines": [ 16.4648, 16.766072, 16.402695, 15.882731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.984, "volume": 761485, "typical_volume": 270553.3, "trend": 15.301467, "fair_value": 12.937064, "relative_strength": 6.683455, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.01958, "energy": 25.455451, "activity_lines": [ 16.2256, 16.610945, 16.421295, 15.932305 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.266001, "volume": 528655, "typical_volume": 286945.3, "trend": 15.386333, "fair_value": 12.974467, "relative_strength": 5.259269, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.123177, "energy": 25.574098, "activity_lines": [ 16.163733, 16.514182, 16.457181, 15.994533 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }